Pollster John Zogby isn’t dismissive of former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s chances of making it to the party nominating convention in Milwaukee despite polls showing the odds are against her.
In laying out Haley’s path to the nomination, Zogby said the easiest way would be to pull off a shocker in New Hampshire. “Nikki Haley has to win. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about this. No coming close. No making a nice showing,” he said.
Zogby added, “She’s got to win, win somewhere, show results for all of her efforts to stop Donald Trump, and this is the place to do it.”
In a new podcast with his son and fellow pollster Jeremy Zogby, the Democratic pollster said there is a path to Milwaukee. But it will require several perfectly threaded needles.
First, he didn’t rule out a surprise Tuesday night. He cited Hillary Clinton’s comeback in New Hampshire in 2008 as an example. At that time, Barack Obama had momentum with a stunning victory in Iowa, but Clinton won in New Hampshire, and the race became a delegate fight all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
“Is there a potential victory scenario? I’m going to say there is a potential victory scenario, but it’s remote, especially given the polling,” John Zogby said.
Here’s where front-runner former President Donald Trump comes in.
First, he said, Haley may have hit “paydirt” in questioning Trump’s mental readiness after he confused her with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in a speech last week.
“That was much more than a gaffe,” John Zogby said. “That was either anger and rage taking over a person’s mind or someone who’s lost contact with reality. Either way, it’s up for the voters to decide. Too soon to get any real measurement, but that’s a possibility. In conjunction with that, or another possible victory scenario, involves a huge turnout among independent voters, many of whom want to stop Trump and many of whom may want to cause some disruption within the Republican Party.”
Then, there are criminal cases against the former president that could undermine his march to the nomination, though they haven’t affected his efforts yet. But should they, he said, Haley would be able to note that, like Clinton, she has won delegates to make her the next pick.
“Going against Donald Trump for the remainder, even if he wins likely every primary and caucus from here on in, she gets delegates. And if for some reason, whether it’s a criminal conviction or questions about his mental judgment, she goes to the convention with some delegates and says, ‘Hey, I won some delegates. I’m your nominee,’” John Zogby said.
“Not likely scenarios,” he said, “but worth talking about.”
For her part, Haley dished a memo to the media on Tuesday saying, “We aren’t going anywhere.”
Jeremy Zogby, the managing partner of their John Zogby Strategies firm, agreed there’s a slight chance of a surprise. He noted comebacks that started in New Hampshire by the 2008 GOP nominee John McCain and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in 2016.
“There is a wild-card factor, but I just don’t see it,” he said, noting there has been only one recent poll showing Haley close to Trump.
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And as for Trump losing support over a criminal conviction or gaffes, Jeremy Zogby said it’s unlikely, given MAGA’s embrace of Trump.
“We’ve seen that movie, I don’t know, 25 times, 20 times, I’m exaggerating slightly, and that doesn’t seem to be delivering the results that those who believe that would like to see,” he said.
