Donald Trump‘s decisive win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday brought the former president one step closer to a rematch with his 2020 Democratic rival, President Joe Biden.
But the growing number of third-party candidates threatens to upend the race as both parties fear an independent run will siphon votes away from their nominee.
It looks increasingly likely voters may be presented with two historically unpopular standard-bearers in the general election, prompting several politicians to consider or launch White House runs themselves. That list already includes well-known figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, who declared their candidacies last year.
Kennedy, who initially ran as a Democrat, secured enough signatures on Tuesday to appear on New Hampshire’s ballot as an independent, and his team is working to make him eligible in all 50 states. Then there’s No Labels, a nonprofit group pushing for ballot access and pitching the prospect of a more centrist, independent ticket.
None are considered competitive against either Biden or Trump but could appear on enough state ballots to shift the results.
“I think we are going to have a number of third-party candidates running and independent candidates running, but my best guess is that they’re going to be somewhere in the single digits, each one of them, if not lower,” said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor at Valdosta State University who studies elections and political parties.
“It’s very possible they could spoil the election. It’s extremely unlikely that any of them would actually win,” Tamas added.
Tamas, the author of The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties, believes that both sides could be affected by a third-party candidate in the general election but that Republicans could be more vulnerable to a spoiler.
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“The Republican Party has moved so much into the MAGA direction and has basically gotten rid of or sidelined almost anybody who was more in the kind of traditional conservative approach or moderate conservative,” Tamas explained. “There is the possibility of someone coming in and grabbing and representing that group. The only thing they have left is Nikki Haley, and every sign is that she’s not going to win the nomination.”
No Labels, which has not named a candidate, has already raised a more than $60 million war chest and has qualified in 14 states. The group has floated various candidates for its ticket, such as former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who recently stepped down as the group’s co-chairman, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who continues to hint at a third-party bid.
“People are looking for options, and we’re going to be looking at that, too,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday. “Whether it’s me or whoever it may be, I think there’s going to be options available if it goes down the way it’s going down.”
After making an appearance in New Hampshire ahead of the primary, Manchin plans to travel to South Carolina and Georgia this week “to talk with voters about political dysfunction and the movement we are building to provide a voice to the moderate majority and get s*** done in Washington,” according to a press release from Americans Together, the nonprofit group Manchin recently formed with his daughter aimed at boosting centrist policies and politicians.
No Labels is now doubling down on the idea of running a third-party ticket following the outcome of the New Hampshire primary.
“It’s never been clearer. The public is hungry for another choice in the 2024 presidential election,” Ryan Clancy, chief strategist with No Labels, told the Washington Examiner. “That’s why No Labels is plowing ahead in our effort to secure ballot access to ensure voters have that choice if they want it.”
The organization has come under growing scrutiny, with some Democratic-aligned groups filing complaints in an effort to force it to reveal its donors on Wednesday. Earlier this week, the organization was hit with an “unjust enrichment” suit by Durst Organization Chairman Douglas Durst and President Jonathan Durst.
Many Democrats are concerned about the threat a centrist group like No Labels poses to Biden, with the possibility that a third-party candidate could siphon off voters in critical states such as Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
“Red alarm bells are ringing left and right — anyone who doesn’t think this could impact Biden doesn’t fully understand how serious the risk is,” said a Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “I know the voters are unhappy with their choices right now, but Democrats could seriously risk losing the White House to Trump because of this.”
Allies of Biden are watching the legal process closely as third-party candidates navigate a complex patchwork of laws in order to get on to each state’s ballots.
“We’re keeping an eye out to make sure they’re dotting all their i’s and crossing their t’s, and we are not ruling out legal action with our attorneys if we identify a problem — and that applies for all third-party threats to President Biden,” Pat Dennis, president of the American Bridge group, told Reuters.
No third-party candidate has ever come close to winning a presidential election in the United States. However, some, such as Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000, played significant roles, taking votes away from the major candidates.
“In some ways, the dynamics are good for third parties right now, at least at the presidential level. I mean, people are very unhappy,” Tamas said. “But what we’re not seeing is the third parties actually taking a strategy that is likely to work — and by work, I don’t mean actually winning but at least having some sort of an impact on the process.”
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Tamas said for a third-party candidate to be successful, voters need to be enthusiastic about the candidate.
“The third parties actually have to develop a strategy with a galvanizing theme that really energizes people,” he said. “It’s not enough for the voters to not like the two main candidates. The voters have to be galvanized by the third-party candidate as well.”
