Writing at the Atlantic, Ross Douthat speculates on McCain’s standing in the head to head, hypothetical match-ups for November. Douthat says this should be a high-point for McCain and yet he seems to have hit a ceiling at 45 percent in most national polls. The problem with this argument is that it’s wrong. I’m not alone in having speculated that a drawn out Democratic battle actually hurts McCain. Until the Democrats pick a nominee, there’s simply nothing McCain can say or do to make headlines. A divided Democratic convention, moreover, would make for great news, even if it ultimately hurt whoever the Democrats do select. The most important numbers right now are the head-to-head polls that show McCain is nearly tied with Obama. In this respect, it is a highpoint for McCain who trailed by 5 to 10 points for the first two months of the year. If the Democrats ever decide on a nominee, McCain will work his way back onto the front pages–and his poll numbers should respond one way or the other.