As more voters become frustrated with Washington and leave their political homes, “independent” voters have grown to nearly half, and they are starting to show who they would back in the fall elections.
In the latest I&I/TIPP survey shared with Washington Secrets, that choice is former President Donald Trump by a hair.
Now, the critical swing vote, independents, favor Trump by two points, 43%-41%, well within the margin of error. And when asked which way independents “lean,” the numbers are similar, 45% Republican to 43% Democrat.
“Independents now make up a hefty plurality of 43% of all registered voters,” said the poll analysis. It added that Democrats and Republicans make up 27% of the vote each.
What’s more, for the 2024 election, “The share of people calling themselves ‘independent’ was tied for a record high.”
They matter more than ever because the partisan vote is solidly behind their candidates, suggesting that winning the independent vote means winning the election.
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“Both parties will have to focus not just on motivating their own voters, but in getting the increasingly sizable independent vote motivated as well. Right now the share of independents saying ‘other’ (13%) or they’re ‘not sure’ (10%) totals nearly a quarter of the entire independent vote. So neither party can take them for granted,” said the analysis.
Independent voters are also still shopping around, and some appear to be leaning toward third-party and fringe candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads the independent candidates with 13%, according to the analysis.
Here, the potential outcome of the race becomes more clear. When third-party candidates such as Kennedy are included in a poll of all voters, Trump’s lead widens to 40% to Biden’s 34%, outside the margin of error.
