The remnants of the Islamic State have returned to the group’s insurgent roots since the destruction of its land caliphate earlier this year, but it may be regrouping to make another land grab, the Pentagon says.
The terrorist group has been operating in a “clandestine” fashion since losing the last of its territory in Iraq and Syria, said Chris Maier, director of the Pentagon’s Defeat-ISIS Task Force, in a Wednesday press briefing.
“They established control over large swaths of territory. We see no indication that that intention or desire has gone away,” Maier told the Washington Examiner. “The reason we use ‘clandestine insurgency’ is because we think this is a calculated effort on their part to stay below the radar screen, re-gather strength, and then potentially attempt to establish a caliphate or something more down the road.”
He described the group as having a “shadow” of its former military, economic, and political strength but added it’s clear ISIS survivors are attempting to “seep back into some of the areas where they’ve lost the ability to control or govern.” Maier did not say exactly how many ISIS forces remain but estimated there are thousands between Iraq and Syria.
“Keep in mind, though, that this number’s down from various estimates upwards of 60,000 when ISIS was at its peak,” Maier told reporters. “Numbers are useful but not a complete [picture] as to the threat ISIS poses.”
Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led anti-ISIS mission, is addressing that threat by building up local security forces, but the effort has been complicated by Turkey’s concerns about the Kurdish YPG militia, the People’s Protection Units and an essential partner in the anti-ISIS mission, operating near its border.
Turkey says the YPG has close ties to the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a separatist group it has battled in its southeastern region for decades. The United States is trying to alleviate the worries by establishing what the Pentagon calls a “security mechanism” in northern Syria along the Turkish border. Turkish officials refer to it as a “safe zone,” but the intention is the same: to create a buffer between Turkey and the YPG forces.
The United States has established a joint operation center in Turkey’s southern region with the country’s military from which the two countries can coordinate patrols in the zone. So far, they have completed five helicopter flights over the safe zone and at least one ground patrol, which took place on Sept. 8. Additionally, the U.S. is working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mixed group of local partners fighting ISIS, to remove YPG fortifications within the zone, though Maier admitted there are still YPG members in the area.
“I think it’s important to keep in mind that all of this mechanism helps to support, in our estimation, the continued fight against ISIS, which goes on on a daily basis,” Maier said.
The coalition is also working to improve the conditions in which captured ISIS fighters are being held. The Pentagon estimates there are 2,000 foreign terrorist fighters from more than 60 countries being held by coalition partners such as the Syrian Democratic Forces. Many are being held in makeshift prisons that might not be sustainable in the long term. Some of these prisoners have attempted to escape. Maier said the United States remains focused on “repatriating as many of these individuals as possible.”
ISIS analysts have been concerned for some time that ISIS’s remnants are biding their time to make another push in Iraq and Syria.
“To me, they’re not isolated pockets of surviving ISIS remnants but rather a reconstituting insurgent force akin to the force, for instance, that the U.S. faced in Iraq during the [2007 troop] surge,” Jennifer Cafarella, research director for the Institute for the Study of War, recently told the Washington Examiner.
