China’s state-owned companies seek to seed Western societies with an expanding array of technological vulnerabilities, according to a new warning from a NATO ally’s spy agency.
“The average Western individual still perceives the Chinese technological landscape as abstract and distant, failing to recognize its potential as a threat,” Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned in its annual report, released Monday. “The rise and global proliferation of Chinese technology are not solely the result of Chinese talents’ diligence and entrepreneurship; it is part of China’s strategic efforts to enhance its political influence alongside exporting its standards.”
China’s desire to use technology for strategic purposes emerged as a major priority for U.S. officials in 2019, when then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo conducted a diplomatic tour of central Europe, warning NATO allies against the risks of allowing Huawei to build its next-generation telecommunications infrastructure. Yet that campaign hasn’t prevented Chinese companies from embedding in a variety of other sectors.
“Over the past year, we have witnessed how Chinese technology is penetrating an entirely new area in Estonia — the electrical grid,” the report said. “After being excluded from 5G networks, Huawei has targeted cloud services and solar and wind farms. Both Huawei and other Chinese companies seek to supply Estonian electricity networks with inverters and energy storage systems connecting solar and wind farms to the national grid.”
Those economic ventures reflect Beijing’s intention “to create deliberate dependencies” in the West, according to Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Kaupo Rosin. “China’s long-term plan to create a divide between Europe and the United States remains unchanged,” the report noted. “China has stepped up its efforts to invite European officials to visit China, often fully covering the expenses associated with these trips. … However, it is important to underscore that China continues recruiting foreigners, specifically within its borders.”
Much of the report centered on the status and ramifications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Rosin’s team assessed that Russia intends “to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea region,” including through a major “military reform” designed to expand its conventional military forces near the Baltic states.
“If Russia manages to implement the reform, NATO could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade,” the Estonians forecast. “Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require allied defense forces and defense industries to be significantly more prepared, capable and better-stocked with ammunition and materiel than they currently are.”
Ammunition shortages have been a persistent and debilitating feature of Western efforts to aid Ukraine. Russian troops “have at their disposal three to four times more ammunition per day than the Ukrainian forces,” according to the report, and the disparity will worsen, from the Ukrainian perspective, over the coming year. And yet, Putin would prefer to “freeze” the conflict in a way that allows him to declare a near-term victory before pursuing larger objectives at a more advantageous time, Estonian officials predicted.
“For Putin, a frozen conflict in Ukraine is an interim solution that must serve the ultimate goal of gaining political control over Ukraine,” the officials warned. “The Kremlin is placing its bets on war fatigue in the West and is working to amplify it. Putin calculates that without sufficient Western support, Ukraine will find it challenging to withstand Russia in the long term and achieve strategic success.”
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If Chinese and Russian officials have a shared desire to undermine Western power, their various priorities and strategies have produced a measure of divergence, the Estonian officials suggest. China believes that “Russia’s loss could seriously damage its own strategic position,” according to the report, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping also wants to advance his larger goal of driving a wedge between U.S. and European democracies.
“China has been cautious about openly and fully supporting Russia and seeks to minimize any association with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine,” the intelligence report observed. “This is because such an association would hinder the resumption of trade relations with Western countries and negatively impact China’s image as a neutral and fair country in the eyes of developing nations.”
