House Speaker Mike Johnson‘s (R-LA) protection from a motion to vacate the speakership could prove to be his biggest liability politically as it relies on support from his opposition.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted more than four months ago after a group of eight Republicans were boosted by the entire Democratic caucus in the successful motion to vacate. The initial move to remove McCarthy came after he cut a deal with Democrats to avoid a government shutdown, a move hard-liners considered a betrayal. The ensuing three weeks of attempting to elect a speaker paralyzed the chamber during a pivotal time, but the House eventually ended up with Johnson as speaker.
After the chaos of October 2023, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) does not believe the Democrats would facilitate another speaker coup.
“They know the work we have yet to get done this year is essential and critical,” Turner told Politico. “If the Democrats allow the fringe that threatens Johnson’s job every day to be successful, then all their priorities and the nation’s priorities would fail.”
While Johnson has received threats of motions to vacate the speakership during his short tenure, it would take Democrats joining a few Republicans to facilitate a successful removal. Protecting Johnson’s speakership to avoid chaos has reportedly been raised by Democrats in private, but no Democrats have given public assurances of security.
The apparent lack of appetite for a third speaker election saga this Congress from Democrats gives Johnson some job security, but it could be used against him.
One of the chief talking points from the House Republicans who voted in favor of vacating the speakership in October was that McCarthy had relied on more Democratic votes than Republican ones to pass a stopgap to avoid a government shutdown. Despite the small GOP coalition relying almost exclusively on Democratic votes to oust McCarthy, the California Republican was sent to his political doom.
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With some frustrations from Republicans under Johnson’s leadership, including his recent Israel aid bill proposal and the failed impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, his job may be secure for this Congress, but Democratic reliance on job security could hurt his chances of being speaker in another Congress.
The Republicans have a razor-thin majority, 219-212, with the November election expected to be a toss-up over who will win control of the House of Representatives between the GOP and the Democrats. Stability, something lacking in the first session of the 118th Congress, may be more likely for the House of Representatives as the election looms.
