New congressional maps in several states are set to change the political landscape of 2024, aiding either Democrats or Republicans as they look to flip control in Congress.
Wisconsin became the latest state to approve new congressional maps, with Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) signing the Republican-approved legislative boundaries into law this weekend. New York, Louisiana, and Florida lawmakers are continuing to battle either each other or the courts over their maps, while Alabama and Georgia concluded their redistricting fights in 2023.
Many states faced court rulings that found their maps violating the Voting Rights Act, requiring many to draw in majority-black districts to reflect the state’s population, such as Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana.
Here is where the redistricting fight stands ahead of the November election.
Alabama — Approved
Alabama’s redistricting battle came to a close in November last year in a win for Democrats. The federal judge overseeing the redrawing of the congressional maps selected Remedial Plan 3, which redrew lines to make the 2nd District made up of 49% black voters.
Now, instead of six safe GOP districts and one safe Democratic district, the new map for the 2024 election will have two districts in which Democrats have a strong chance of winning.
Redistricting in Alabama dominated much of the state’s political calendar for the second half of 2023, with the U.S. Supreme Court even weighing in on the matter. In June, the high court affirmed that Alabama’s maps violated the Voting Rights Act.
Following the Supreme Court’s order, the anticipation of two new majority-black districts shifted the projected outcome of five 2024 House races to lean in favor of Democrats.
The state originally drew a new map but only maintained one majority-black district and one that was 40% black, up from 30%. That map was rejected by a three-judge panel in September, so a third party was hired to draw three remedial maps.
Georgia — Approved
Republicans took the victory in Georgia after a federal judge upheld the state’s newly approved congressional maps. The map preserves the Georgia Republican 9-5 advantage in the House and dissolved Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-GA) district, which was mainly composed of minority voters.
The new maps essentially hand Republicans an advantage to maintain nine of Georgia’s 14 seats in the House.
Democrats originally saw the redrawing of the congressional boundaries as an opportunity to pick up more seats in Congress and in the state legislature, as Republicans hold a 10-seat majority in the Georgia legislature, 222-212. Given that black voters historically trend toward supporting Democrats, they were hopeful the new maps would give them an edge in 2024.
Instead, they essentially lost a seat, and depending on what path McBath decides to take, it could also throw the Democrats’ other seats in jeopardy.
Louisiana — Approved but facing challenge
Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed Louisiana’s new congressional maps that complied with a court order to have a second majority-black district into law in January. Republicans hold five of the six congressional seats in Louisiana, but the new maps likely will cost the GOP one of them — handing Democrats another opportunity to flip the House this November.
The new map protects the partisan lean of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-LA) districts but reshapes Rep. Garret Graves’s (R-LA) district to become the state’s second black-majority district. Johnson had opposed the drawing of the new maps, saying the previous map, with only one majority-black district, was constitutional.
However, the maps are already facing a lawsuit from 12 nonblack voters who argue the new map unfairly discriminates based on race and divides the state into “six bizarre shapes” of the districts.
The voters challenging the maps argue they violate the 14th and 15th Amendments, alleging they commit “explicit, racial segregation of voters.” Their challenge was assigned to a three-judge panel at the beginning of February.
“In the matter of a mile, a person can travel in a straight line from a majority-non-African American district to a majority-African American district and then back to a majority-non-African American one,” the court filing stated.
The Supreme Court placed Lousiana’s long-standing legal battle over its congressional maps last year on hold while it was ruling in Alabama’s case. The high court later lifted its stay on Louisiana after upholding Alabama’s lower court decision in June, ruling that Louisiana needed to draw a second majority-black district before the 2024 election.
Wisconsin — Approved
Evers signed new legislative maps into law on Monday that were approved by Republicans much more than Democrats. Evers said the new maps reflect the “basic fact” that Wisconsin is a “purple state.”
Under the current maps, which were drawn by Republicans, the GOP had a 22-10 majority in the state Senate and a 64-35 majority in the state House. Under the new map signed by Evers on Monday, the seats will be more evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats.
Forty-five districts are more Democratic than Republican, and 46 districts are more Republican than Democratic, leaving eight districts as more likely to be toss-ups, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Florida — Pending court challenge
Florida’s congressional maps will be challenged before the state Supreme Court, as activists argue the maps violate the state constitution by not including a former black-majority district that spanned most of the northern part of the state.
The maps were championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in 2022 after he pushed the state legislature to pass a bill that did not include the previous majority-black district. The district existed in maps prior to the 2020 census, but the governor argued the district was a racial gerrymander.
Florida Circuit Judge J. Lee Marsh ruled in September 2023 that the congressional map was unconstitutional under the Fair Districts Amendment, but a state appeals court later reversed the lower court’s ruling in December.
The 2022 maps give Republicans a 20-8 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation. If the state Supreme Court rules against Florida, it will likely aid Democrats in their campaign to flip the U.S. House.
New York — In progress
A bipartisan commission in New York approved a set of congressional maps last week that resembles the ones used to help Republicans pick up seats in 2022 and win the House majority. Now, New York Democrats have to decide whether to push those maps through the legislature or draw their own — and risk pushback from state Republicans.
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Under state law, lawmakers can reject the bipartisan commission’s proposal, but the efforts can make Democrats vulnerable to a lawsuit, sending the matter back to the courts. Given the two-year legal battle involving the Empire State’s maps, New York Democrats may grow weary of the courts and vote to adopt the commission’s redistricting proposal.
Doing so could risk reelection for vulnerable House Republicans, such as Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), but also push seats held by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) and Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY) further into Democratic hands.
