Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) takes a 10-point lead over Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake in a new head-to-head poll, the result of Arizona’s electorate “steering away from the MAGA brand.”
The new poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds in a two-person race, Gallego leads Lake, 47% to 37% among likely voters with 16% of voters unsure.
Gallego, the likely Democratic nominee, and Lake, who is the front-running Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, are competing for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)’s seat. Sinema left the Democratic Party a little over a year ago to become an independent.
If she doesn’t call it quits, she’ll enter a three-way race, but the signs are looking increasingly unlikely that she’ll mount a Senate bid.
However, when Sinema is added into a three-way race, Gallego’s lead shrinks to only three percentage points, with 34% of voters choosing him, 31% backing Lake, 23% supporting Sinema, and 12% unsure.
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David Byler, chief of research at NPI, said the results show MAGA Republicans continue to struggle with moderate Republican voters.
“In Arizona, MAGA Republicans can easily win a GOP primary. But they struggle with McCain-style Republicans in suburban Phoenix,” Byler said. “That’s why Gallego wins so handily in a two-way race but barely leads in the three-way contest.”
“There’s a chunk of moderate Republicans who would pick Gallego over Lake in a two-way matchup, Sinema over both of them in a three-way race, and a bland, generic Republican over anyone — if the GOP would nominate one,” he added.
The survey, conducted between Feb. 6-13, 2024, found Gallego has a +21 net favorability rating (47% favorable, 26% unfavorable) while Lake has a -9 rating (40% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and Sinema has a +2 net favorability rating (44% favorable, 42% unfavorable).
Internal polling from both the Gallego and the Lake campaigns shows the race is much closer. Garrett Ventry, a senior adviser to Lake, downplayed the results of NPI’s poll, claiming the methodology is flawed since they used an online opt-in panel survey, pointing to a Pew Research Center study that found opt-in samples are about half as accurate as probability-based panels.
“In 2022, Noble was off by 13 points in the GOP primary. In 2018, he predicted the GOP Senate Primary as follows: Ward 36%; McSally 27%; Arpaio 22%. Election results in 2018: McSally 53%, Ward 28%, and Arpaio 19%.” Ventry posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. “You don’t have facts, you miss constantly.”
The results of the latest NPI poll come one day after Meghan McCain rejected Lake’s offer to meet one-on-one after the Senate Republican candidate attempted to bury the hatchet as a result of disparaging comments she made about the late senator during her failed gubernatorial run in 2022.
“Guess she realized she can’t become a Senator without us,” McCain wrote on X. “No peace, b****. We see you for who you are – and are repulsed by it.”
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Lake recently earned the endorsement of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm last week, a major boost that comes with legitimacy and potential resources. NPI CEO Mike Noble believes the race is expected to become more competitive in the months to come.
“Remember that Lake has gained ground in recent months by making in-roads with the GOP,” Noble said. “She’s going to try to consolidate her party — and to make sure that Republicans who are currently behind Gallego know just how progressive his record is.” According to a recent average of Arizona Senate polling in a general election, Gallego leads with 35%, compared to Lake’s 30.5%. Sinema comes in third place with 22% of support.
