Whatever happens in South Carolina’s Republican primary on Saturday, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is staying in the race for president.
Haley made that announcement this week amid polls that show she is likely to lose her home state to former President Donald Trump by at least 20 points.
There are several reasons Haley might not be ready to call it quits.
Haley is still raising money
The former South Carolina governor outraised Trump in January and doesn’t have his legal bills. She is still attracting financial support from Republicans who would like to move on from Trump and even some of President Joe Biden’s donors.
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That may not last if Trump starts beating Haley by progressively bigger margins. But it is a two-way race, and if you don’t want Trump, Haley is the only game in town.
Supporters are telling her it’s too early
It may be that we never see a truly competitive Republican primary, given Trump’s quasi-incumbent status. But not many states or people have voted. Much of the 2016 GOP field stayed in the race after South Carolina despite Trump’s triumph there. And Trump alternatives took more than 40% of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two biggest head-to-head contests that have already occurred.
Based on that, Haley and her backers probably think it’s premature to bow out now. Even if Haley gets trounced in South Carolina and Michigan, Super Tuesday is around the corner. Trump hasn’t clinched the nomination yet, and there are a lot of delegates outstanding.
“What is the rush?” Haley asked on Tuesday. “Why is everybody so panicked about me having to get out of this race?” She told the Associated Press that her departure would set up the longest general election in history. No matter what the polls say, who wants that?
A possible overperformance in South Carolina
Haley has masterfully played the expectations game throughout the primaries. That’s how she parlayed a third-place showing into a two-way race narrative even before Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) dropped out.
In New Hampshire, Haley did better than the polls predicted because she was able to bring more crossover voters — Democrats and independents — to the polls. That hasn’t historically been a big factor in South Carolina, but it is possible for non-Republicans who didn’t participate in the low-turnout, uncompetitive Democratic primary earlier this month to cast a ballot.
Haley’s Palmetto State poll numbers have been so dismal that she could probably spin a 60-40 loss into a moral victory. A political press that is eager to keep covering the primary would likely cooperate.
Forty percent is also a big enough slice of the primary electorate to justify continuing. Haley hasn’t set a number, but her 43% in New Hampshire helped keep her campaign going.
Trump’s legal situation
The former president faces multiple criminal and civil cases. While it would be unprecedented for a candidate to blow a lead as big as Trump’s, he is already in an unprecedented situation.
If Trump has to bow out because of an adverse legal ruling or just because his lawyers convince him to focus on his defense, Haley is an active candidate the Republican National Convention could consider.
This has to be considered unlikely. Even if a legal anvil falls on Trump’s head before the convention, Haley isn’t accumulating delegates all that rapidly and probably wouldn’t be the Trump delegates’ second choice. But it’s a consideration in keeping the primary fight going past February.
Trump’s attacks
The personal can be political. Trump is known to attack rivals in over-the-top terms, and his comments about Haley’s husband clearly angered her. Vivek Ramaswamy can tell Trump what happens when Haley gets angry.
It, at a minimum, makes Haley less inclined to do Trump any favors by crowning him the presumptive nominee early. Her counterattacks have probably ruled her out of serious vice presidential consideration, something that was really only on the table as a way to avoid a protracted nomination battle anyway, and will make an early Trump endorsement look bad.
Instead, Haley can stay in the race a while longer and point to polls that show she would beat Biden by a bigger margin in November.
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If the polls are right, Trump could start beating Haley by landslides soon, and she is not currently favored to win anywhere. At that pace, Trump might secure the delegates he needs to win the nomination by mid-March.
That would be pretty early. In the meantime, don’t expect Haley to make it even earlier.
