With two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth all but on the books, 2022 is beginning to look like a recessionary year.

Granted, the second quarter’s negative 0.9% growth is still a Commerce Department first estimate that followed the first quarter’s negative 1.6%. It will be months before the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Dating Committee, the keeper of the kingdom for defining U.S. recessions, gives a final reading. But President Joe Biden is loath to admit a recession on his watch.