On the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington needs to pay more attention to Kazakhstan, the key state in Central Asia that not only borders America’s two major adversaries, Russia and China, but stands at the forefront of countering threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
The triple challenges of restricting any spillover from Afghanistan, containing an assertive China, and affirming independence from Russia intersect in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is reaching out for greater American involvement.
The three pillars of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations are nuclear nonproliferation, regional security, and foreign investment. Kazakhstan’s nuclear arsenal, inherited from Soviet times, was dismantled through close cooperation with Washington, and the government has been globally active in nuclear nonproliferation. Its achievements can serve as a model for other states such as Iran and North Korea. Kazakhstan possesses 12% of the world’s uranium reserves and 43% of uranium ore production, together with industrial facilities and technological experience that guarantee it will play a major role in harnessing nuclear technology for civilian purposes.
Regional security requires leadership and domestic stability.
Kazakhstan has reinforced its sovereignty by reviving its language, culture, and history. It conducted a peaceful presidential transition after almost three decades of rule by President Nursultan Nazarbayev. In June 2019, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the former prime minister, won the presidential elections, initiated several political reforms, and created higher quotas for women and youth in senior government posts. This will reinforce Kazakhstan’s position as a model for other secular, majority-Muslim states and counter the Taliban appeal to Muslims to resist Westernization. This approach can also undercut Iran’s attempts to capitalize on regional instability.
Only a secure regional climate in which diplomatic, security, and economic linkages are expanded will attract foreign investment and reduce the potential threat from Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is building an alliance with Uzbekistan, is developing a regional format for the five Central Asian states similar to the Association for Southeast Asian Nations, and launched an initiative for regional partnerships with Afghanistan.
On the energy front, Kazakhstan is the world’s ninth-largest crude oil exporter, accounting for over 70% of Central Asia’s GDP, and has the 15th-largest proven natural gas reserves. Oil has been a major factor in the country’s development, with significant investments by Chevron and ExxonMobil. Although it will continue with hydrocarbons exports as a major revenue stream, the country also plans to invest in alternative energy sources. It can benefit from the extraction of rare-earth elements, which are needed to produce globally needed high-tech components such as semiconductors, solar panels, and batteries for vehicles.
In 2019, the Trump administration unveiled the “US Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity,” but the initiative needs to be developed to help the region withstand pressures from Russia and China. Military and intelligence services can be intensified to counter terrorist threats, and multinational regional formats must be supported. Washington can also help Kazakhstan secure membership in the prestigious Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development when it reaches the needed benchmarks.
U.S. investments can be an important component of economic development. In September 2020, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched the U.S.-Kazakhstan Business Council to enhance economic relations. The chamber’s corporate chair is held by Chevron as the vanguard of more than 700 American firms doing business in Kazakhstan. American FDI stands at about $53 billion, but this can be significantly increased if the obsolete Jackson-Vanick trade sanctions are lifted and Permanent Normal Trade Relations are adopted by the U.S. Congress.
U.S. firms have many opportunities in a wide range of sectors, including energy, mining, engineering, construction, transport, agriculture, healthcare, and IT. Economic indicators are positive, with the World Bank predicting that Kazakhstan’s economy will grow by 3.2% this year and 3.7% in 2022. A secure and developing Central Asia with U.S. involvement will be an effective hedge against extremists, terrorists, and state hegemons.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His upcoming book is titled Failed State: Planning for Russia’s Rupture.
