Vladimir Putin has marshaled tens of thousands of Russian troops and tanks at Ukraine’s border in anticipation of a threatened invasion.
With his dream of a reunited USSR, Putin has brought the Ukrainian situation to a boiling point. His immediate aim is to seize territory — an objective he has long pursued with his actions in Crimea and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. In the grander scheme, however, he hopes to divide the powers of NATO and the European Union through his provocation while restoring Russia’s long-lost international esteem. But a Russian invasion of Ukraine, far from returning Russia to greatness, could well backfire.
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Putin may think his gambit will fatally divide the NATO alliance. He perceives the mortar holding NATO together is beginning to crack. It is admittedly true that many NATO states have become complacent since the fall of the Soviet Union, often failing to meet their defense spending commitments. Yet, an overt invasion of Ukraine would clearly demonstrate the threat of Russian expansionism. It would more likely spur the European states to ramp up their defense commitments in response to Russian aggression.
As I emphasized when I visited Ukraine with my colleagues on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, if Putin chooses war, the West must respond with swift and severe sanctions that will put pressure on Russia’s struggling commodity-dependent economy. The Russian economy cannot weather such chaos. In 2021, Russia’s population declined by nearly 1 million people. Its fertility rate is well below replacement. This is a major structural issue that will spell long-term economic and social challenges for Russia, weakening its ability to fulfill its national ambitions.
The array of sanctions available in response to Russian aggression would inflict lasting damage on the country’s ability to trade and provide prosperity for its people. For example, SWIFT sanctions would freeze Russia out of the system for making international bank transfers. This would deliver a major shock to Russians, especially given Russia’s level of integration into the global economy. Were this to happen, Russia would have nowhere to go except to become dependent upon China. Instead of being independent and respected, Russia would be relegated to playing the junior partner to the Communist Chinese.
Twice last century, the United States waited until it was too late, and conflagrations in Europe cost us dearly. Perhaps here, we can prevent this from expanding to something of that scale. With early assistance to the people of Ukraine and the democratically elected leaders of this country, we can make a difference and end Putin’s folly with the diplomacy that President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have initiated in cooperation with the European Union and NATO.
Mark Green, a physician and combat veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, represents Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. He serves on the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.
