Three years ago, I hypothesized that the spread of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, techniques and more publicly available technology would lead to a revolution in intelligence capability for terrorist organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and criminal groups.
Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, we see further evidence that the opposite is also true. Worldwide public involvement in the production and dissemination of intelligence is at an all-time high courtesy of social media platforms such as Twitter and Telegram. The war in Ukraine is truly the people’s war.
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Such public involvement in an intelligence process is not unprecedented — both sides of the Jan. 6 events were public on social media. Those who stormed the Capitol used social media as a forum and planning space, while those against the event contributed by helping law enforcement agencies in identifying participants after the fact.
Despite surges in popularity during crises, OSINT has always been relevant in the information age. Conscious or not, people from all walks of life have participated in the intelligence process, be it college students tracking the flight patterns of billionaires, college football fans following a coaching search, or Reddit users keeping tabs on the conflict in Syria.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is different from all previous examples. Never before has such a globally distributed population participated in the OSINT effort on social media. Twitter is live with OSINT 24 hours a day, breaking down the latest information and reporting. OSINT experts and novices alike track the latest reporting out of Ukraine, prepare battle damage assessments, distribute contact reports, and track Russian force disposition throughout the country.
Classified products certainly have their place in any conflict, but OSINT has a considerable advantage over traditional classified intelligence: It can be unclassified and therefore shared immediately. From personal experience, nothing is more frustrating than being unable to share information with your team because they do not have the appropriate clearance or because the information isn’t cleared to be shared with their country.
OSINT also represents a windfall for countries without a highly developed intelligence and collection infrastructure. The United States and Russia each have a massive intelligence apparatus developed over decades to pursue each country’s respective national security priorities. Now, we see novices participating with nothing but a computer or smartphone and internet access.
The fruits of this massive participation by global Ukraine sympathizers have already materialized. First, Russia is losing the international information war and is also being threatened domestically. Russian citizens bypass internet controls, and Western information operatives find creative ways to spread information, by leaving reviews at Russian restaurants, for example.
In addition, the global community is pushing relevant and actionable intelligence directly to the Ukrainian government. Earlier this week, Ukrainian security forces successfully attacked a Russian unit in the Kyiv area thanks to a tip on Telegram. Real-time information such as this tip is available on social media for the Ukrainian defense forces and the OSINT community to take advantage of.
The significance of the global embrace of OSINT cannot be overstated — there is a reason that the U.S. intelligence community has been aggressive in its pursuit of OSINT capability. As the world grows more interconnected through social media and digital communications, relevant information available to intelligence analysts grows exponentially.
The war in Ukraine represents a high point for OSINT enthusiasts and professionals, but it is only the beginning. OSINT has been relevant for a long time but is becoming relevant to a vast global audience. Future conflicts will continue to be framed by the computer and smartphone screen rather than the newscast.
Philip Reichert is a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and contractor for the U.S. Space Force.
