Much like the abortion debate, the transgender rights debate tends to operate at the two polar-opposite ends of the spectrum. Democrats fear that Republicans will refuse to even respect the chosen name of a transgender adult, while Republicans fear that Democrats want to pump preteens with puberty blockers. But the average population is in broader agreement on trans issues as it pertains to adults.
The majority of Republicans report that they would be comfortable having a close friend come out as transgender, and GOP support for transgender adults serving in the military is on the rise. But one hot-button issue has broad opposition, even among Democrats: whether transgender athletes should be allowed to participate in women's sports.
With Mississippi trying to ban transgender athletes from competing on women's high school and college sports teams, Morning Consult polled the public and found strong support for the bill across the board. Predictably, a staggering 74% of Republicans support the ban. But even among independents, a ban has +16 favorability. Democrats are almost evenly deadlocked, with 40% supporting a ban and 42% opposing.
What could explain this large-scale agreement? Well, the transgender athlete debate isn't really about transgender rights at all. It's about safety and fairness in women's sports.
You can support transgender soldiers, transgender bathroom access, and about every other form of affirming transgender identities and still consider a transgender woman (that is, a biological male) clobbering a biological woman in rugby highly dangerous. And just as obviously, forcing biological women to compete with transgender women even in non-contact sports still puts them at a severe disadvantage physically, costing them the scholarships and accolades that can become lifelines for students.
The British Journal of Sports Medicine found that even after hormone therapy, transgender women retain an edge over biological women. Prior to taking feminizing hormones, transgender women have a 15% to 31% advantage over biological women. After two years, the former still run 12% faster than the latter.
You don't have to be transphobic in any way to see that this is unfair at best and a safety concern at worst. That's why the ban's support isn't as partisan as you might expect.
