The Oregon governor’s race usually garners little attention from outside the state. The election of a liberal Democrat is normally so predictable.
This year is different.
The Republican nominee, Christine Drazan, appears to be in a dead heat with the Democrat, Tina Kotek. Polls indicate both drawing about 39% of the electorate, with Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator running as an independent, capturing about 14%. The last time a Republican won the Oregon governor’s race was 1982, when incumbent Vic Atiyeh was elected to a second term with 62% of the vote. Since then, the demographics of the state have changed. Virtually all statewide races are now won by Democrats, and the party has had a lock on both chambers of the state legislature since 2012.
DEMOCRATS FINALLY FOCUS ON ECONOMY AND CRIME IN LAST MIDTERM CAMPAIGN ADS
What is different in 2022?
It’s very simple: the overall quality of life in Oregon has rapidly declined. Homeless camps are everywhere, crime is rising, and public school test scores have plummeted. Gov. Kate Brown’s tyrannical handling of the COVID-19 crisis, which included extended school shutdowns, alienated many of her natural allies. Since Kotek was Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives during most of the Brown era, she is widely perceived to be Kate 2.0. In this particular year, that is not an advantage.
Kotek also has flaws as a candidate. She’s not a charismatic speaker, and she does not come across as an inspirational leader. She is a product of Portland liberal politics, where she had a safe House seat that allowed her to pursue almost any agenda she wanted. With Democratic supermajorities in one or both legislative chambers for much of her tenure as Speaker, passing progressive legislation wasn’t too hard. In those cases where it was difficult, she ruled with an iron hand to get her way. That leadership style might be acceptable, or even necessary, to keep the legislative conveyor belt running, but it doesn’t necessarily translate into statewide appeal in a race for governor.
Oregon’s changing demographics are also a factor. The number of non-affiliated voters has been growing steadily, and comprises 34.4% of all voters, compared with Democrats at 34.2% and Republicans at 24.7%. A decade ago, Democrats accounted for 40% of the total. Now that non-affiliated voters represent the largest voting bloc, it has created an opportunity for strong third-party candidates, which is clearly affecting the 2022 governor’s race.
A third-party candidate, Betsy Johnson, comes from a prominent Oregon family. She is tapping into voter discontent with Brown and has received more than $3 million from Oregon’s richest person, Nike co-founder Phil Knight. Republican Christine Drazan is also proving to be a formidable candidate. She was an effective Minority Leader for two legislative terms. She knows the process, she’s an excellent campaigner, and has raised enough money to get her message out. In recent months Phil Knight has donated $1.5 million to her campaign, showing that his primary motivation is to defeat Kotek.
It’s likely there is a large cohort of voters who share this view, but whether they will vote for Johnson or Drazan is unknown. One of Portland’s most prominent bloggers, law professor Jack Bodanski, is a Democrat who dislikes Kotek so much he won’t vote for her. But he also despises Republicans, so he will be voting for Johnson. Everyone in the “not Tina” camp has to make the same calculation. If there is enough vote-splitting, Kotek could win with as little as 34% of votes cast.
Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, and ballots are already being turned in. We will soon know if this is the year voters opt for an ideological reset.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICA
John A. Charles, Jr. is President & CEO of Cascade Policy Institute, a policy research organization based in Portland, OR.
