If you need a good example of the Biden administration’s penchant for appeasing Russia, look to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby’s almost congratulatory response to Russia’s test of a Sarmat-class intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday. “Russia properly notified the United States under its New START Treaty obligations [of] a plan to test this ICBM,” he said. Kirby added that the “routine” test was “not a threat … and it was not a surprise.”
So if this test was “not a threat” and was “not a surprise” and “is routine,” why is the U.S. unwilling to conduct its own missile tests?
That question is especially pertinent, considering that the Sarmat is designed to evade U.S. missile defense systems (including those in development) and to carry either a hypersonic glide vehicle armed with nuclear warheads or a large payload of heavy nuclear warheads. Put simply, the Sarmat is designed to annihilate key strategic targets such as Washington, D.C., and New York City.
Again, why aren’t we seeing similar U.S. ground-based missile tests?
Kirby gave us the unfortunate answer in early March. Announcing the delay of a long-planned Minuteman III ICBM missile test, Kirby declared that the U.S. wanted “to demonstrate that we have no intention in engaging in any actions that can be misunderstood or misconstrued.” The delay and subsequent cancellation of that test is an embarrassment that harms both the credibility and capability of U.S. nuclear deterrence.
At the capability level, Kirby’s insistence that the postponed test doesn’t affect readiness is absurd. Nuclear missile tests are designed to ensure that the missile in question and its associated units are ready to do what they are designed to do: deliver prompt and effective action in a situation of immense national danger. Considering that the Minuteman III forms the entirety of the ground-based element of the nuclear deterrent triad, its readiness is no small concern. Moreover, although they have been repeatedly upgraded, the Minuteman III system was first deployed in the 1970s. It is old. Even if only at the margin, canceling these tests thus introduces unnecessary risk to the nation’s ability to deter and defeat a potentially existential threat.
So, why is the Biden administration taking such a tone of appeasement toward this aggressive bully, even as he opposes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Well, senior Russian government and military officials are almost certainly screeching over their encrypted communication networks that they fear a surprise U.S. nuclear attack. That would explain the U.S. worry over tests being “misconstrued.”
The problem is that the Russians are likely screeching not in true fear, but rather to deceive U.S. and British listening ears. It’s part and parcel with what the Russians refer to as “maskirovka,” or camouflage masking strategy. If the Russians truly feared U.S. nuclear escalation, they would be surging their nuclear forces to high readiness levels and forward patrol sectors. Leaving no doubt that the test is a one-fingered salute to the U.S., the head of Russia’s space agency, Dmitry Rogozin, declared on Wednesday that on “this memorable day, we made a gift for NATO.”
And that cuts to the point about credibility. Vladimir Putin and his inner circle have a fetish-like penchant for taking advantage of perceived weakness. And this is also about China. Beijing, after all, is dramatically boosting its ground-based nuclear strike forces. And considering how China treats its own people, it would be madness to assume that Xi Jinping would hesitate before inflicting gross misery upon Americans.
The U.S. has the most capable nuclear forces in the world, both in terms of defense and offense. Unfortunately, even before this missile test saga, the Biden administration had weakened U.S. nuclear forces by canceling programs and pressuring the Pentagon to cut back on training exercises. But if U.S. nuclear forces lack the public proof that they are ready to fulfill their mission, and if U.S. leaders show hesitation about being ready to order their action, U.S. nuclear deterrence will suffer in kind.
This nuclear appeasement serves neither U.S. interests, nor our allies’ interests, nor the ultimate cause of peace.
