Vladimir Putin could use a friendly face by his side. Humiliating Russian defeats in Ukraine have joined to growing criticism of Putin’s war effort, even from his top supporters. He got that friendly face on Thursday via Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Putin and Xi, who declared a “no limits” friendship in February, showered each other with jovial comments. Putin thanked Xi for Beijing’s “balanced position” on the war. The Russian leader reiterated Moscow’s contention that the United States is creating an artificial crisis over Taiwan with repeated trips to the island by U.S. lawmakers. Certainly, bilateral ties between these two powers are blossoming. Russia-China trade reached an all-time high last year. The Russian and Chinese militaries have normalized joint exercises, and Russian and Chinese diplomats frequently unite at the United Nations to frustrate U.S.-led initiatives. China is also purchasing more Russian oil than ever before.
But it would be inaccurate to say that Russia and China’s relationship has elevated to that of an alliance. The term “alliance” would suggest two things, neither of which exist between Moscow and Beijing. First, the shared willingness to join military action against another power. Second, the willingness to put self-interest to the side in furtherance of a greater foreign policy alignment.
Yes, Xi has refused to denounce Russia’s war on Ukraine. Yes, he strongly condemns the U.S. and EU sanctions regime directed at Moscow. Yes, Beijing has been more than happy to gobble up cheap Russian oil, exports that help Putin earn hefty revenues to finance his war (estimates suggest China has purchased nearly $35 billion of Russian oil, gas, and coal since the start of the war). Again, however, we shouldn’t pretend China is doing all of this out of the goodness of a communist heart. Everything China does (and just as importantly, doesn’t do, like violate U.S. sanctions and export restrictions on Russia) is in Beijing’s own interests. Beijing wants a Russia that is dependent and noncompetitive, yet strong enough to keep internal order and counterweight U.S. interests.
But Russia is now a second-turned-third-rate economy. Its export value is sourced overwhelmingly from natural resources. The Russian military is a stumbling mess, apparently good only at lobbing artillery shells without variable accuracy and burglarizing abandoned houses. Russia’s strategic outlook has worsened considerably, its ties to Europe now largely relegated to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Moscow doesn’t have much to lose in further alienating the West because the West is already livid at Russian conduct.
China, however, does have plenty to lose. Its $17 trillion economy relies heavily on access to Western markets and technology. The Chinese have a $1.3 trillion trade relationship with the U.S. and EU to protect. They’re not going to jeopardize that trade by sending the Kremlin the military aid or the semiconductors it needs to sustain a faltering war effort. Neither is Xi going to endorse openly what Putin is doing in Ukraine, even if Russian readouts say otherwise.
Put another way, the “no limits” Russia-China relationship does, in fact, have limits. America shouldn’t panic about the formation of a new Sino-Russian alliance anytime soon.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
