If Mexican drug cartels somehow built a vast pipeline to supply their drugs right up to the U.S. border and did so with the approval of the Mexican government, would that pipeline give the U.S. leverage? Or would it give the cartels leverage?
I ask that hypothetical question in light of Jake Sullivan’s statement on Nord Stream 2 on Tuesday.
Addressing the White House press corps following a video conference between President Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, the national security adviser claimed that the Russia-Germany natural gas pipeline actually gives leverage to the West.
“The fact is the gas is not currently flowing through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” Sullivan argued, “which means that it’s not operating, which means that it’s not leverage for Putin. Indeed, it is leverage for the West because if Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow thru that pipeline, he may not take the risk of invading Ukraine.”
I respect Sullivan and think he’s an asset to the country. But his argument here is nonsensical. Again, it goes back to that cartel example, except that in this case, the cartel is Putin and the Mexican government is the German government.
The facts are clear.
Nord Stream 2 is currently idle not because Germany is putting pressure on Putin to avoid his threatened invasion of Ukraine, but rather because the pipeline’s owners have yet to establish a German holding company as required by German law. When they do so, Nord Stream 2 will pump gas. Putin will then be able to cut off the supply of gas running through Ukraine (denying that nation much-needed transit fees) and leverage political and security concessions in return for helping Germany avoid freezing winters.
But the central problem with Sullivan’s “leverage” assertion is that Germany remains in favor of Nord Stream 2. Chancellor Angela Merkel leaves office on Wednesday, but her replacement also seems committed to Nord Stream 2.
That man is the Social Democratic Party’s Olaf Scholz. Scholz has abandoned Germany’s NATO defense spending commitments and will withdraw Germany from NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture. Although Scholz hasn’t said much about Nord Stream 2, his agreement with his Green Party and FDP coalition partners commits him to providing affordable energy supplies to German consumers. It also declares that “natural gas is indispensable for a transition period.” And while incoming Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock supports the pipeline’s suspension, she’s unlikely to find many allies. Baerbock certainly has her task cut out for her at the Foreign Ministry, which refuses even to include the threat of suspending Nord Stream 2 as an option.
Put simply, Sullivan’s point about leverage is not serious. Nor is his claim of broader deterrence against Putin.
Sullivan said that “the president has shown over the course of the past eight months that he will do what he says he’s going to do in response to Russian actions.” This is not true at all. What Biden has actually done is to offer Putin sustained appeasement. And Putin likes it. Sullivan’s comments here, then, are just hot air.
