<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1667329610236,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"00000183-c22a-d791-abd3-de7fbea80000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1667329610236,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"00000183-c22a-d791-abd3-de7fbea80000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
$bp("Brid_67329524", {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1129494"}); ","_id":"00000184-3495-d5ff-a7af-3cdf592b0000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedPresident Joe Biden is in the final days of his first midterm elections campaign. With an approval rating of about 42%, how does he stack up against other presidents at this same point in their terms? And what does his standing say about the upcoming elections?
The record, compiled by Gallup, shows that the four presidents with the lowest job ratings during the three-month period leading up to their first midterm elections were Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, with 41%, and Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Biden, with 42%. How did each president’s party do in their first midterm elections?
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The two past presidents averaging 42% approval ratings at this moment saw their parties suffer losses in Congress as well as governorships. In 1978, Carter’s Democratic Party had a net loss of three Senate seats, 15 House seats, and five governors. Reagan’s Republican Party in 1982 had a net loss of one Senate seat, 26 House seats, and seven governors. Presidents averaging 41% approval ratings took even bigger hits, with one exception. In 1994, Clinton’s Democratic Party lost a net of eight Senate seats, 54 House seats, and 10 governors, one of the biggest midterm defeats in history. While Trump’s Republican Party lost 41 House seats in 2018, a serious thrashing, and six governorships, they cushioned these losses by winning a net gain of two Senate seats.
In 1978, Democrats retained control of Congress despite Carter’s low ratings. A deepening recession hurt Reagan’s popularity in 1982, and that elevated economic and budget issues in the campaign. In the end, Democrats held the House, and Republicans kept the Senate. The only independent senator, Harry Byrd, Jr. of Virginia, retired, and a future Democratic presidential nominee, Michael Dukakis, was elected governor of Massachusetts.
The 1982 election was the first time the GOP had successfully defended its majority in either chamber since 1928. It was the last time Republicans won a Senate seat in Connecticut and Democrats won one in Mississippi.
The Republican takeover of Congress in 1994 shook Clinton’s presidency and forced him to recalibrate. It was the first time the GOP won control of both houses of Congress since 1952.
In 2018, an incumbent president’s party won net gains in one chamber, but lost seats in the other. That had not happened since 1970. Voter turnout was higher than in any midterm election since 1914, reflecting intense feelings surrounding Trump’s presidency.
Democrats captured the House in 2018, which was ground zero for weaponizing anti-Trump sentiment. Republican Senate gains were won in states that Trump had carried in 2016, further aligning congressional politics with presidential election outcomes. The defeat of four incumbent Democratic senators was the worst midterm thumping of Senate incumbents of a nonpresidential party since 1934.
Democrats did especially well in statehouses four years ago. They picked up seven governorships, flipped more than 350 state legislative seats, including six legislative chambers, and won supermajorities in a number of states. The Nevada legislature also became the first in U.S. history to elect a majority of women.
Now we wait to see how Biden stacks up.
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Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst and author. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion, and is the author of Running for Office.
