This year’s NATO summit, held in Madrid on Tuesday and Wednesday, offers Estonia a critical opportunity. Namely, the chance to make a strong case for a permanent NATO base to be established on its territory.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas recently warned that a Russian invasion of her nation would see Estonia “wiped off the map.” Estonia shares a nearly 300-kilometer border with Russia and is a short drive from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg. It’s a small country, not even twice the size of Maryland.
Estonia’s primary military concern is Russian artillery. It has seen the devastating impact those artillery forces are having in Ukraine. Every square inch of Estonia is within range. And having lived under Russian occupation before, Estonians have no intention of letting history repeat itself. The challenge is that Russia might be able to launch a blitzkrieg rush across Estonia, quickly seizing its territory. Without a good deal of advance warning, NATO would struggle to mobilize quickly enough to react to a Russian invasion. So what to do?
One solution is to establish a permanent multinational NATO base on Estonian soil. A place to which military hardware and forces can quickly cross national borders in the event of a crisis — a tripwire of permanent form.
NATO’s apparent solution: placing over 300,000 NATO troops on high alert won’t be enough to deter Russian aggression. Only the physical presence of a trained NATO force on the ground can do that. As with the Suwalki Gap, the key is a base garrisoning a military force that is strong enough to hold territory until reinforcements can arrive. Such a base could take the form of a rotational NATO Response Force — a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. Another course of action would involve moving the Land Forces Command from Izmir, Turkey, to Estonia.
It would send a strong message, both to our Baltic partners and to Russia: “This we will defend.”
Retired Army Col. Jon Sweet ( @JESweet2022 ) served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
