The abortion fight is surely supercharged (matters of morality, freedom, and faith usually are), but there is more to it than a battle between polar opposites. A middle ground of voters, often overlooked, don’t agree with absolutist views on either side.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that 30% of voters believe abortion should never be banned, 20% say it should always be banned and nearly half favor both allowing and banning abortion at various times during a pregnancy. Though support for the absolutist pro-abortion rights position exceeds the absolutist anti-abortion position by a 10-point margin, anti-abortion advocates can take comfort that 58% of Americans favor abortion restrictions ranging from conception through the first 15 weeks of pregnancies.
While this poll provides only a glimpse into the convolutions of public opinion on this issue, it also tells us that most people reject absolutist positions and favor a middle ground.
As the midterm elections loom, polls show rising pro-abortion rights sentiment and a majority opposition to overturning Roe vs. Wade. The latest Marist Poll, for example, indicates that 64% of voters oppose scuttling the decision. This is why Democrats are hopeful they can use the issue to turn out their base in November. That’s possible, particularly in states where pro-abortion rights views are strongest.
But while most people want to keep Roe, polls also have shown that slightly more favor than oppose the Mississippi abortion law that outlaws abortion after 15 weeks and is the centerpiece of the current Supreme Court fight. This is based on two surveys conducted last fall by the Marquette University Law School and YouGov.
Using the abortion issue to win general elections, especially in swing states, is difficult for either side. That’s due to policy details and the varying intensity of opinions in each state. Another reason: The latest NBC News poll tells us that only 1 in 10 voters say abortion is their most important issue. Other matters, such as inflation and the economy, are hitting home harder.
The Democratic Party is now the abortion rights party, and the GOP is the anti-abortion party. But a large number of voters in each camp do not identify with commonly used labels. One poll shows roughly a quarter of each party’s voters say they’re “both pro-life and pro-choice,” and that’s in addition to the 13% of Republicans who say they’re “pro-choice” and 8% of Democrats who say they’re “pro-life.”
The same survey finds that 48% of Democrats say abortion should never be banned. But 14% think it should be banned after six months of pregnancy, 11% after 15 weeks, 10% after three months and 9% after six weeks. Seven percent think it should always be banned.
Of Republicans, 40% say abortion should always be banned. But 22% say the ban should take effect after six weeks, 11% after three months, 9% after 15 weeks and 7% after six months. Eleven percent never want it banned.
Despite anti-abortion predispositions, most Republicans believe abortion should be allowed in cases of rape (55%) or incest (58%), and 69% favor allowing it when the mother’s life is seriously endangered. Though 82% of Democrats say the abortion decision should be left to the woman and her doctor, 30% of Democrats also believe “abortion is the same as murdering a child.”
Keep in mind, too, that these national polls do not reflect attitudes by states, which can vary greatly. That’s important, given the battles ahead should Roe be overturned.
Whatever views political candidates express, they need to understand the complex nuances and human consequences of the issue. That’s why personal conscience is the best guide — no matter what the polls show.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a free nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion, and is the author of Running for Office, a tell-all book for political candidates.
