House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) may have been unwise to plan a visit to Taiwan in August. Regardless, now that Pelosi’s intended trip has been made public, the speaker must follow through with it.
Pelosi’s responsibility bears note in light of escalating Chinese threats against any visit. Chinese officials have even suggested that their response might entail a military component. These threats demand attention.
Still, to now cancel this visit would signal American hesitation in support of our most sacrosanct principle: human freedom. It would undermine a small and courageous democracy and signal weakness to allies desperately seeking more of the opposite. To Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jong Un, it would signal that America can be threatened into quiet submission.
This is not to say that Pelosi’s trip is a simple consideration. On the contrary, there are good reasons to suggest this was a poor time for the speaker to plan a public visit to Taiwan.
U.S. tensions with China are already high. Xi is looking toward a pivotal coronation later this year as Communist Party chairman. In Xi’s view, that status would crown him as the leader destined to assure China’s global supremacy in the 21st century. Xi thus has both domestic and foreign policy reasons to present strength. And facing growing disquiet over the party’s autocratic rule at home and increasing skepticism of China’s actions abroad, Xi cannot allow the United States to make him appear weak. Xi views his ability to subjugate Taiwan, either through political action or military force, as symbiotic to his own destiny of leadership. Put simply, the only thing Xi fears more than his inability to restore Taiwan to the “motherland” is the failure of a military operation to do so.
The U.S. must leverage that fear.
Deterring China’s conduct of an invasion, embargo, or missile onslaught against Taiwan is the best means of protecting Taiwan’s democratic sovereignty at the minimum cost. While Taiwan matters for the moral, economic, and political reasons regarding its relationship with America, it also matters for the associated credibility of the post-Second World War international democratic order. But deterring China from attacking Taiwan also requires China’s recognition of two other considerations — first, that Taiwan is willing and able to do far more, far more urgently in its own defense. (The island democracy continues to spend far less on defense and reservist training than it should.) Second, China must also know that the U.S. is highly likely to intervene militarily in Taiwan’s defense.
U.S. credibility, then, will be crucial in determining how the question of Taiwan’s future is answered.
That brings us back to Pelosi. Were the speaker to cancel her trip now under Chinese and White House pressure, she would signal America’s lack of seriousness about standing up and defending its values and interests. If America cannot withstand China’s vague rhetorical threats to cancel a political visit, for example, how can America be expected to withstand swarms of People’s Liberation Army drones, missiles, and aircraft targeting the U.S. Navy? After all, those swarms will provide a certain greeting reception for any U.S. military forces that move to defend Taiwan in the event of war. For Pelosi to back down now would not show diplomatic nuance but rather decided nervousness — a nervousness that is especially dangerous in the face of brutal and determined adversaries.
There are ways to mitigate the risks of Pelosi’s trip sparking a Chinese Communist overreaction.
For one, the speaker should fly to Taipei by civilian airliner rather than a U.S. military aircraft. This would signal the peaceful nature of Pelosi’s visit while mitigating China’s means of threatening Pelosi’s delegation. The sight and symbolism of a U.S. military aircraft landing on what China views as its own territory to deliver the second most powerful U.S. politician to meet with officials whom China views as traitors would risk forcing Xi into a corner if he felt forced to lash out. A U.S. military aircraft would also risk undercutting America’s ability to earn international support for the visit. Furthermore, Pelosi should limit the duration and associated publicization of the trip until its completion. This would strike a balance between showing presence and poking the Chinese Communist dragon.
But Pelosi should go to Taiwan. The trip has now been announced. Backing down now would send a terrible message to Taiwan, China, and the world. The U.S. must stand firm with a simple message: Its officers and officials will not yield to threats. Wherever so invited by a sovereign democratic government, they will travel as desired.
