The polls have tightened since Labor Day. The Democrats‘ widely touted summer bounce has faded, and a real shift back to the GOP has begun. But will it help the party win back control of the upper chamber come the November midterm elections?

A look at the Senate map shows that, barring any shocks in “likely” or “safe” Republican races, the party needs to win five of the eight “toss-ups,” which include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance holds a slim lead of 1.2 points over his opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH). RealClearPolitics moved this race from its toss-up column to “leans Republican” on Sept. 20 and projects this seat will be a GOP hold, a sentiment echoed by many pundits.