North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan on Wednesday.
According to the South Korean military, the missile traveled a relatively short distance at a relatively low altitude. It does not appear to have come close to Japan. The low altitude suggests the test was focused on testing the missile’s boost phase engine performance. Nevertheless, Yonhap reports that analysts believe the test did involve a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile. The first North Korean missile potentially capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, the missile serves as the centerpiece of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear force.
This latest missile outing, which follows another Hwasong-15 test in March, was likely ordered by Kim for two reasons.
First, to assist North Korean missile scientists in gathering data on the upgraded systems on the Hwasong-15. That data will assist in the development of more advanced, longer-range weapons that can carry larger nuclear payloads.
The test is also likely designed to get the Biden administration to pay more attention to Pyongyang. Kim’s structurally weak economy remains in tatters after an extreme COVID-19 lockdown that saw North Korea’s borders almost totally shuttered. Food shortages remain a particularly critical problem. Perhaps hoping that another foreign security crisis is the thing that President Joe Biden needs least, Kim may see this test as a way to encourage Biden to pick up the phone and encourage South Korea to grant North Korea more aid.
The timing of this test is particularly noteworthy on that count. After all, a new conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will take office in Seoul next Tuesday. Yoon has pledged to take a tougher stance against North Korea than his more appeasement-minded predecessor. Yoon’s stance toward China is less clear. While he talked tough during the campaign, the incoming president appears to have abandoned plans to deploy the U.S. THAAD missile defense system. China is opposed to that system being positioned close to its borders. In turn, Kim may hope that Yoon’s hesitation on THAAD is a signal that he’ll bend to increased pressure.
Regardless, this test allows Kim to remind the world and his party elites that he remains in charge and that he will take risks to advance his interests.
