Speaking at a CNN town hall event on Thursday, President Joe Biden was asked whether he would defend Taiwan in the event that it was attacked by China.
Biden responded, “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.” The White House then quickly backtracked, insisting that U.S. policy remains unaltered. That traditional policy centers on “strategic ambiguity” as to whether the United States would use force against a Chinese invasion.
Still, Beijing is unhappy with Biden’s words. A spokesperson suggested the president had insulted China’s 1.4 billion-strong population. The Western-focused Global Times propaganda newspaper posted a lengthy report attempting to figure out whether U.S. policy had indeed changed. This reaction reflects the highly emotive nature of the Taiwan issue for Xi Jinping and his Communist Party. Reunifying Taiwan under Chinese rule is seen as an almost sacred duty by party elites. Xi Jinping also sees it as a critical test of his “dream” of Chinese global dominance in the 21st century. As China ramps up its military shows of force near Taiwan, domestic pressure on Xi also looms large.
Biden’s comment will put Xi on edge.
Joined to a similar remark Biden made to ABC News in August, China will fear that the U.S. would indeed take military action to defend Taiwan. While a U.S.-Taiwanese victory in any conflict is far from assured (U.S. carrier strike groups would have to stay significant distances from the island, for example), Taiwan’s prospects would grow very significantly with U.S. support.
For Xi, the only thing worse than losing a war with Taiwan would be to lose against the Communist Party’s ideological competitor for global leadership. For both the U.S. and China, Taiwan is thus a means to an end not an end in itself. For China, Taiwan’s subjugation would signal the Party’s arrival to superpower status and help coerce the international community to abide by Beijing’s demands. For the U.S., Taiwan’s sovereignty is a marker for U.S. credibility in the eyes of its allies and partners. The U.S. fear is that if Taiwan goes down, the U.S.-led political infrastructure of the liberal international order will go down with it.
In that regard, Biden’s comment strengthens U.S. credibility as the world’s superpower.
It will also complicate China’s effort to deter Taiwan from bolstering its international prestige. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has seen great success in this regard. Just this week, a massive supermajority of the European parliament voted to change the name of the European Union’s office in Taiwan. While the vote is not binding on the EU executive, it reflects a growing sentiment of support for Taiwan across Europe.
China has sought to deter this support by leveraging its economic power and launching scathing attacks on pro-Taiwan governments. But the result has been the very opposite of that which Beijing intended: Views have hardened in Taiwan’s favor. At the same time, the European parliament has put a much-vaunted EU-China trade deal on ice in protest of Beijing’s human rights abuses. The departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel from power will only reinforce China’s loss of influence in Europe. Hungary’s Viktor Orban is now its strongest voice on the European Council. (The EU’s executive leadership body made up of member state leaders.)
All of this leaves Xi in a difficult situation. He has significantly escalated Chinese pressure against both Taiwan and its friends in the international community. In turn, Taiwan and the international community are doubling down on their kinship. Biden’s comments are just one, if the most significant, example of this dynamic. Xi must now ask himself whether his bad cop/bad cop routine is the right strategy. But whatever he does, the risks of escalation are growing.
China may soon attempt to test U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan with a military escalation against the democracy.
