After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington last week, the following concerns are likely to be near-term collection priorities for the U.S. intelligence community.
1) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reaction to the Zelensky visit. Does Putin see the visit as a symbol of U.S. and allied resolve with regard to the war in Ukraine? Or does he see the visit as a reflection that there are cracks in the U.S., particularly with an incoming GOP Congress that may put some strings on future U.S. aid? A key point here: it doesn’t matter what we in the pundit class think was the result of the visit. It matters more what Putin thinks. The U.S. needs hard intelligence, either from human agents with direct access to Putin’s thinking or from intercepts of internal Russian communications.
Why does this matter? Putin will only throw in the towel if he knows he will be defeated; much, if not all, of that depends on Western resolve to do whatever it takes to allow Ukraine to win.
2) Iranian weapons shipments. There are reports that Iran will send more suicide drones to Russia and perhaps advanced missiles as well. The U.S. will need hard intelligence to determine the type and amount of such shipments, the shipment routes (perhaps for allied interdiction efforts), and the military bases in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine that receive such systems (for future targeting by the Ukrainian military). For a mere 5% of our annual military spending, we have helped Ukraine attrit 50% of the Russian military. That’s a hell of a return on investment for the U.S. Russia knows this and needs to re-arm. The quality of our intelligence will help thwart such efforts.
3) Russian espionage operations in Europe, including hybrid warfare plans and intentions. The intelligence war in Europe is in full swing. We saw German intelligence several days ago arrest one of its own — reportedly a senior member of their external service, the BND — for spying for Russia. In addition, Russia is up to its old active measures tricks, whipping up sentiment in Europe against the war via propaganda efforts on social media (highlighting energy shortages, exploding prices, etc.) Ultimately, the U.S. will need to continue to collect on and expose Russian intelligence activity all across Europe, as this is a key battleground even as fighting rages in Ukraine.
Finally, a note of thanks to those on the front lines. It’s worth highlighting that there are many members of the U.S. intelligence, diplomatic, and military communities working in tough conditions abroad during this holiday season. Many are in harm’s way, far from home and family. To me, they are heroes, standing on the ramparts protecting us. Let’s all thank and appreciate them for what they do. I spent several holidays in the conflict zones of the Middle East and South Asia. In particular, I fondly remember one Christmas in eastern Afghanistan, where I ran a paramilitary base along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Less than 20 Americans on a one-year deployment, I remember asking who wanted to go home for Christmas leave to see their families. Nearly all hands were raised, and I wondered who would remain behind. Yet I was mistaken. The team was actually volunteering to stay. Even as we received daily indirect fire rocket attacks from al Qaeda and the Taliban, we built a “Tiki” bar out of ammo crates around our fire pit, put up some decorations around the base and our colleagues even air-dropped us steaks (and a frozen pig) from a C-130.
This was my home for that year, and it remains my most memorable Christmas ever. There was no greater honor in my life than standing side by side with my brothers and sisters at the CIA, helping protect our fellow Americans.
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Marc Polymeropoulos is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. A former CIA senior operations officer, he retired in 2019 after a 26-year career serving in the Near East and South Asia. His book Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA was published in June 2021 by Harper Collins.
