The Missouri Senate race is turning into a Republican free-for-all, with Rep. Vicky Hartzler poised to announce her campaign in early June and other GOP contenders to move in the same direction.
The favorites to win the nomination are scandal-plagued former Gov. Eric Greitens, who is popular with grassroots Republicans, and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who revealed on the conservative podcast Ruthless that he raised more than $1 million since announcing his campaign. Both are competing hard for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But with Hartzler on the verge of getting in and other Republicans considering bids, the outcome of the GOP primary is shrouded in uncertainty.
“The Missouri Senate race looks to be a crowded affair,” said Gregg Keller, a Republican operative in St. Louis. “Eric Schmitt has to be considered the front-runner at this point, given his strengths as a candidate, fundraising prowess, and top-flight campaign team. Vicky Hartzler will be a serious candidate if/when she gets in.”
Keller is severely critical of Greitens, arguing the former governor is the only Republican who would jeopardize the GOP’s hold on ruby-red Missouri’s open Senate seat. “Absent Greitens getting nominated, Republicans win the general election in a walk,” Keller said. Greitens resigned as governor a few years ago amid allegations of sexual misconduct, although he now claims post-scandal investigations have vindicated him.
Trump, who has remained mum on whatever preference he might have in the Senate primary, won Missouri twice by an average of 17 percentage points. When Sen. Roy Blunt announced he would retire after the 2022 elections, a flood of Republicans began exploring a campaign because of the presumption that the GOP nominee would cruise to victory in the general election, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate.
Mark McCloskey, the Second Amendment activist who attracted attention for brandishing a gun outside his home as a Black Lives Matter march proceeded past his home, entered the Republican primary in May. Republican Reps. Bill Long and Jason Smith have not ruled out a campaign, nor has Rep. Ann Wagner.
The congresswoman came close to running in 2018 before backing out after the GOP establishment coalesced behind now-Sen. Josh Hawley, who at the time was the state attorney general. Wagner has tapped Ward Baker, a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to advise her effort to explore a campaign for Senate in next year’s midterm elections.
A Republican strategist not affiliated with any of the candidates (or potential candidates) said that the more crowded the primary gets, the better chance that Greitens has of winning the nomination. “Greitens will be the nominee if all these candidates actually run,” the GOP insider said.
— Emily Brooks contributed to this report.
