The world could temporarily reach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in at least one of the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, signaling that meeting the most aggressive global climate targets is moving out of reach.
The World Meteorological Organization said in a report Thursday there is a 40% chance annual average global temperature will briefly reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years. Keeping global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is the Paris climate agreement’s more ambitious goal and a feat most scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
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In addition, the WMO expects at least one of the next five years to become the warmest year on record, a title currently held by 2016.
“This study shows — with a high level of scientific skill — that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO’s secretary-general.
“It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality,” Taalas added.
Some countries, including the United States, have ramped up their near-term commitments to curb emissions. In April, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. would strive to cut emissions at least in half by 2030, though the administration has not offered a detailed plan to achieve those greenhouse gas reductions.
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Reaching net-zero emissions globally by 2050, which many scientists say is necessary to keep global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, will require dramatic changes to how the world produces and uses energy, the International Energy Agency said in a recent report.
For example, the IEA said new oil and gas development should halt immediately. Across the global economy, fossil fuels would have to fall from nearly four-fifths of today’s energy supply to just over one-fifth by 2050, the IEA said.
