Belarus troops may not be useful to Russia during Ukraine war

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var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_65522634", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1115262"} }); ","_id":"00000183-c909-d2c9-a9e3-fb1946030000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedBelarus will not send forces to fight in Ukraine, according to Russian and Belarusian lawmakers, despite the announcement of a “joint force” of Russian and Belarusian troops adjacent to Ukraine.

“Belarus has never been and will not be an aggressor,” Belarusian parliamentarian Igor Martynov told state media. “We have never claimed anyone’s territory. … There is a regional group of forces, as well as the Armed Forces of Belarus that guard our borders.”

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and Russian officials claim that the contingent of Russian troops are returning to Belarus in order to defend against a hypothetical attack from Poland or other NATO territory — a remote prospect that they claim to fear. U.S. and allied officials are mindful that Lukashenko allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to use Belarus as a staging ground for the abortive attempt to capture Kyiv early in the war.

“We reiterate our call on the Belarusian authorities to stop enabling the Russian war of aggression by permitting Russian armed forces to use Belarusian territory and by providing support to the Russian military,” the G-7, a bloc of the world’s seven largest industrialized democracies, said Tuesday. “The announcement of a joint military group with Russia constitutes the most recent example of the Belarusian regime’s complicity with Russia. We renew our call on the Lukashenko regime to fully abide by its obligations under international law.”

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The tone of Martynov’s statement seems consonant with the reported unpopularity of the war among the Belarusian people, who are ruled by a dictatorial vassal of Putin despite a major outbreak of protests that rocked the regime in Minsk after Lukashenko claimed victory in a 2019 presidential election.

“We do believe that the Belarusian military is not really good enough to fight, and they most likely would also have serious morale issues,” a senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “But then again, war is a messy thing.”

Putin has been trying in recent weeks to mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian conscripts to replace his wartime casualties and stem the tide of an ingenious Ukrainian counteroffensive that has liberated large swathes of Ukrainian territory and threatened Russian supply lines. A second European official surmised that the so-called “joint group” is a ruse designed more to distract Ukrainian officials than change the dynamics of the conflict.

“They try to diversify Ukrainian resources to slow down [Ukrainian] advancements in the battlefield in the East and South,” the second official surmised. “Limited engagement from the [Russian] units from that direction is possible.”

A senior Russian lawmaker, in a statement promoted by Belarusian state media, maintained that Russia does not need the assistance of the Belarusian forces.

“As for the participation [of the joint group] in the special military operation, I think that this will not be necessary,” the Russian State Duma’s Andrei Kartapolov said Monday. “The group that is currently deployed there is quite capable of performing the task.”

Lukashenko seems poised to resist any proposals from Moscow to insert Belarusian forces into Ukraine, according to the first official, to the extent that his vulnerability to pressure from Putin will allow it.

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“But his room of maneuver is so [very] limited that he may not be able to avoid that,” the first senior European official said.

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