Visiting Israel last month, President Joe Biden signed the “Jerusalem Declaration” promising to “use all elements of its national power” to deny Iran a nuclear weapon. Biden’s strategy, however, appears little more than sanctions relief. Even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now mock his appeals for diplomacy.
Biden is right that bombing is no solution. While it can degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it cannot eliminate the knowledge Iranian scientists have accumulated over decades of developing ballistic missiles, enriching uranium, and, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, experimenting with warhead design. To send bombers and cruise missiles against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would only delay Iran’s program, not eliminate it. To kick the can down the road absent any real policy to change the regime or eliminate Iran’s nuclear program into perpetuity is an abuse of blood and treasure.
Still, other options exist beyond bombing.
If the problem that bombing cannot resolve is the knowledge of Iranian nuclear scientists, then the solution must address them directly. There are two main ways to address the nuclear scientist question. In recent years, Israel (presumably) has chosen one way: blowing up missile laboratories, magnet bombs attached to cars, and even using remote control machine gun nests to eliminate scientists. Such attacks will continue: Iran’s adversaries repeatedly demonstrate superior intelligence-gathering, while the regime’s internal security is sloppy and permissive.
There are other ways to remove scientists from the battlefield, however. Just as the U.S. granted asylum and, in some cases, new identities to Nazi Germany’s scientists after World War II, so too should the White House encourage the defection of Iranian scientists today. Many may be willing to consider the idea. After all, they have witnessed friends and colleagues die as part of the shadow war. While some scientists may be ideologues loyal to the regime, many others may simply be nationalists who would hope for a better future for Iran once freed from the yoke of the ayatollahs.
Many proponents of engagement argue that the Revolutionary Guards are not monolithic. This is true. Some Iranians are true believers, but many others join for the privileges. Those with a passion for cutting-edge science have few other outlets. The Iranian regime certainly is worried about its people fleeing and providing information to foreign intelligence services. This is why the Revolutionary Guards’ internal intelligence division now requires all current and former Iranian officials to gain its permission prior to international travel. It will be both hard, demoralizing, and counterproductive for the regime to keep scientists locked up, and it would be dangerous for the regime to concentrate potential targets for those who want to eliminate them.
Many Iranians value the occasional shopping trip or vacation in Dubai. Religious Iranians chose to go on pilgrimage to Shiite shrine cities such as Najaf and Karbala. Dissidents and prisoners on furlough often hire Kurdish guides to evade border guards and help them across mountain passes into Iraqi Kurdistan or Turkey. The FBI offers bounties for the capture of terrorists. If Biden values smart diplomacy, his aides might draw up a list of Iranian nuclear and missile scientists who can expect relocation, reward, and meaningful work should they present themselves to any U.S. embassy or consulate. To broadcast such a list would have a dual purpose: Those named may consider it an offer they cannot refuse. They could leave or die.
Such rewards would cost the Treasury a fraction of what military action or inaction leading to a nuclear Iran would. Given the talent of Iranian scientists, it might also enhance U.S. interests. It is time for a coherent Iran strategy that extends past endless talk or the threat of war.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
