Republicans began Tuesday night needing to gain just one net seat in the Senate and five in the House. The only risky Senate seat the party had to maintain depended on beating a literal stroke victim who had pulled a shotgun on an unarmed black jogger. The three most likely pickups included the states suffering some of the worst inflation in the country: Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

And yet, for a second election cycle in a row, Republicans seem slated to leave control of the Senate in the hands of the Biden administration.