Will political pollsters discredit themselves again?

Published September 30, 2022 12:00am ET



New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn believes the Democrats’ summer bounce in the polls may be over and that voter sentiment has returned to where it was in April “when Republicans held the edge.”

Cohn pointed to a graph of average weekly search interest from Google Trends that shows a dramatic spike in searches for “abortion” that peaked on June 24, the date the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade. By late July, the post-Roe bounce had nearly dissipated but remained slightly above pre-decision levels.

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