Since Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine began in February, it was widely assumed that Moscow’s closest ally Belarus would also dispatch troops to help out. It hasn’t happened.

But while the recent announcement of a “joint Belarus-Russia military group” is raising fears of a wider war, President Alexander Lukashenko remains hesitant to intervene in Ukraine. Doing so would scuttle his precarious balancing act of placating the Kremlin without imperiling his own power.