Just weeks ago, in a pre-Super Bowl interview, President Biden hinted that he might have learned something from his former boss. Namely, that it’s not very useful to negotiate with Iran from a position of weakness.
Biden was asked whether he would remove sanctions on Iran in advance of its return to full compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord. He said no.
The show of strength didn’t last very long. But it ended with a bang.
Last week, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps proxy launched a rocket strike on a U.S. military and intelligence base in northern Iraq. That attack killed one American and wounded five others. The Trump administration responded robustly to these kinds of attacks, targeting IRGC proxies with airstrikes and enforcing Tehran’s understanding of a cost-benefit analysis against its interests. Biden’s response has been very much more muted. The White House has complained about the attack and promised to get to the bottom of what happened. But, press secretary Jen Psaki helpfully added, “obviously, diplomacy is a priority.”
There is great folly on display here. The IRGC killed an American in order to see how the new president would respond. And in the absence of a response, the IRGC has learned its most desired lesson. America is so desperate for the ayatollah’s favor that it will tolerate his murder of U.S. citizens. The Obama doctrine has returned.
Unfortunately, that’s just the start.
Reinforcing the appeasement strategy, the Biden administration has accepted a European invitation to attend talks with Iran. Assuming Biden was being honest when he said there would be no sanctions relief without Iran’s restored JCPOA compliance, quite what the U.S. negotiators intend to say to Iran is unclear.
No matter, however, as Iran has not bothered to respond to the European invitation. Instead, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has pledged that he might order an increase in uranium enrichment activity to 60% purity. That’s slightly higher than the 3.67% purity limit proscribed under the JCPOA. Indeed, it’s starting to get close to the 90% baseline purity needed to construct a nuclear weapon.
There’s more.
Also this week, Iran suspended the International Atomic Energy Agency’s snap inspections access to undeclared nuclear sites. Oh, and the ayatollah’s influential Assembly of Experts has ruled out any negotiations to bring its ballistic missile program under new international supervision. This somewhat undercuts the Biden administration’s oft-made assertion that a restored nuclear deal will provide a foundation with which to address the missile concerns.
All of this raises a simple question: What on Earth is the Biden administration thinking?
Biden isn’t simply dancing to Iran’s tune, he’s squandering the massive leverage bequeathed to him by his predecessor. The sanctions regime introduced on Iran by former President Donald Trump, after all, has crippled the Iranian economy and greatly strained the ayatollah and his IRGC minions. Iran desperately needs U.S. sanctions relief. If not, the Islamic Republic’s existence will be imperiled. Tehran’s young population is growing increasingly restless with soaring inflation, a collapsed employment market, and the reinforcement rather than retreat of government cronyism. For all their blustering claims of an eternal revolution, the mullahs know they need a financial lifeline and fast.
As we recently editorialized, Biden should be using Iran’s desperation for sanctions relief to reach an improved nuclear accord. Instead, he is offering the country a gift and having nothing to show for it.
