One of the chief sticking points in the stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran has been the Iranian regime’s demand that the United States lift sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The logic of these sanctions and, indeed, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s “maximum pressure” campaign, rests on the role of the IRGC in Iran’s economy.
After the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, the IRGC did not want to forfeit the wartime privileges it accrued and return to the barracks. It took its engineering corps and began actively competing in the civilian economy, utilizing its military squads to intimidate competition. It was like 1930s Chicago (or perhaps 2020s Chicago). Today, the IRGC controls perhaps 40% of the economy and monopolized entire industries. Oil? IRGC. Electronics? IRGC. Automotive? IRGC. Construction? IRGC.
It is against this context that the visit to Syria by Rostam Ghasemi, Iran’s minister of roads and urban development, is important. While ordinarily, a housing minister’s travel might fly under the radar, Ghasemi’s meetings with not only his Syrian counterpart, but also Syrian President Bashar Assad and Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous suggest greater importance.
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In May 2022, the U.N. hosted a conference in Brussels to seek $10.5 billion in donor commitments to rebuild Syria. While pledges amounted to just over half that, the money is still significant. When Ghasemi offers to build housing projects for displaced Syrians, he conveys an offer Godfather-style to Assad that the Syrian regime cannot refuse. For Iran, such an offer is not charity. The IRGC controls the construction sector, and so, what Ghasemi seeks is for Assad to direct a multibillion-dollar infusion into IRGC coffers.
The Biden administration brags that it is the single largest donor for Syrian reconstruction, providing more than $750 million. The State Department says that it will avoid channeling money directly to Assad, a move that would reward the Syrian dictator for the human rights abuses committed in his name. They are foolish to make such guarantees for three reasons: First, money is fungible; second, Washington has no way to trace its money once in Syria, and third, the United Nations is not nearly so fastidious. As donations pile in for Syria, the IRGC seeks to divert the lion’s share into its coffers.
Even as Iran burns, the Biden administration hopes to entice Iran back into what by any definition was an already deeply flawed nuclear accord. Biden unwound maximum pressure and refuses to enforce other sanctions that remain on the books. What diplomats do not offer Iran in Vienna, the IRGC appears determined to acquire elsewhere. The impulse of the White House and State Department might be humanitarian, but their naivete risks funding more Iranian terror.
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Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
