The Democratic Party’s chance of capturing the House is rising, thanks to the “best” group of candidates the party says it has ever recruited and mounting Republican retirements.
There’s plenty of time between now and Nov. 2018 for everything to change. The current political climate is more chaotic than any in recent memory. But earlier this month, the ratings of 11 districts shifted in the Democrats’ favor, and Republican retirements jumped after the August recess. Even those abandoning ship on the other side of the Capitol have the people running the Democrats’ House campaign arm buzzing.
Retirements
“[T]he pronouncement by Sen. [Jeff] Flake, and what we saw also coming from Sen. [Bob] Corker, that sets a tone with what’s happening with Republicans across America,” said Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The New Mexican Democrat added that the path back to the majority is “going to be tough,” but the more retirements there are, the better.
And if history is any indicator, there are more to come.
Jesse Ferguson, former spokesman for Hillary Clinton, said Democrats are “trusting the beginning” of the way the cycle is taking shape.
“In 2010, when a wave of Democrats retired, it didn’t even start happening until Thanksgiving,” said Ferguson.
So far, there are more Republicans than Democrats retiring in the House, but part of that is because there are more Republicans in the House period. Out of the 16 Republicans leaving the House, only seven are truly retiring. The other six are seeking higher office, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight. The seven leaving politics for good includes the four vulnerable districts. It doesn’t always follow that the party with the most retirements will lose the most seats. But retirements in a swing district definitely hurt the retiring member’s party.
Recruitments
If you ask Rep. Denny Heck, recruitment chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, if he’s feeling good about 2018, he’ll say: “That would be an understatement.”
“We have the largest and best group of candidates we’ve ever had. Period. Full stop,” he said.
The DCCC announced earlier this year that its battlefield this cycle includes 80 districts — the largest in a decade. Heck says they have solid candidates in 69 of them.
A New York Times’ estimate put the number of competitive districts for Democrats at 50. As The Upshot recently pointed out, there are likely too many Democratic challengers stepping up to run in affluent districts, but not enough or none in key working-class districts the party needs to win.
Asked why no one has yet announced a challenge against Reps. Valadao and Katko, Heck said, “Or there are candidates in the pipeline who have not just become public yet. There’s a lot of that.”
So far, a lot of those “recruited” jumped into the races on their own. Whether it was President Trump that pushed them to do it, or the timing was finally right, Democratic challengers are lining up, and they’re doing it their own way.
After devastating 2016 losses, candidates aren’t following the same talking points as members back in Washington, who when asked about 2018 and why they will win turn to the same script: A Better Deal. It’s the agenda the DCCC released in June and is more of a Beltway fascination.
Unlike in 2016 where candidates tied their opponents to Trump at every opportunity, these challengers are turning to a different boogeyman.
Ryan
House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is proving a far more effective target for Democrats running than Trump. In July, a Bloomberg poll found that 48 percent have a negative view of Ryan.
“Paul Ryan is vastly more unpopular than the president in virtually every district in America,” Heck said. “He is twice as unpopular in a lot of places.”
The difference now versus previous cycles when Democrats tried to attack Ryan is, well, Trump. When Trump fights with Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the leadership duo gets hammered by Trump’s base.
It makes House Democratic candidates sound an awful lot like Republicans did the last cycle: You don’t like the Washington establishment of Ryan, McConnell, and Trump? Well, elect me to fight them. Drain the swamp.
“We’re starting to see that not just Trump’s numbers are getting lower, but Speaker Paul Ryan’s numbers are at 19 percent across the country,” DCCC chair Lujan said. “He’s not delivering for their president.”
And it’s a reversal of a tried and true tactic for Republicans, who tether candidates to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as much as possible.
“This isn’t a political strategy — it’s an attempt to soothe Nancy Pelosi’s battered ego after a host of her Democratic colleagues called for her to step aside and House candidates began running for the hills when asked if they’d support her,” said Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Reality
At the end of the day, Democrats have to gain 24 seats. They have to not only hold all their current seats, but win all of the seats rated as “toss ups” by the Cook Political Report, and 11 of those that “lean Republican.”
To win in districts that lean red or, are likely Republican, Democrats have to find a way to break through the noise surrounding Washington, reaching voters they lost to Trump the last go-around. “That will be the test,” said Democratic Caucus Chair Rep. Joe Crowley, D-N.Y.
But before candidates even get to the general election, Democrats are looking at vicious primaries. Fundraising among their candidates is strong — a Politico analysis found that roughly 162 Democratic candidates in 82 districts held by Republicans have raised more than $100,000, but Democratic strategists are concerned that the last ones standing after primaries will have a depleted war chest. Those who boast large financial support now could see that drastically diminish as primaries get into full swing.
It’s something that isn’t lost on the DCCC recruiting chair. When asked about dueling views on how to rebuild — with either a fiery liberal message and candidates that take after Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., or with a more inclusive shift back to the middle, welcoming centrists — Heck wouldn’t talk about the party being dragged to the left.
Instead, he offered a worry of his that’s related to the increasing split.
“I’m concerned that we have hotly contested primaries among multiple candidates in more districts than I would like, but frankly, I think the net benefit to House Dems is the energy,” Heck said.
The competing messages are only ramping up. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who has immersed himself in the political scene over the last two election cycles, is pushing others in the party to call for impeachment. It’s just one example of the Left bypassing congressional leaders, who have tried to beat back impeachment talk.
Do these competing priorities, and the resulting difficulty of getting on the same page, hurt Democrats heading into 2018? House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer dismissed the idea, telling reporters to look at the other party, over there.
“Um, you know, you have individuals. Have you noticed how many — [Steve] Bannon, McConnell’s message, Ryan’s message — so we are so extraordinarily unified compared to that crowd that it’s not even worthy of comparison,” the Maryland Democrat said.
