As former President Donald Trump gets closer to securing the 2024 Republican nomination, one question remains: what to make of the continued support for his last major primary opponent.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley scored one narrow win on Super Tuesday in Vermont, her second victory of the campaign. Trump beat her everywhere else, typically by landslide margins.
Trump’s foes inside and outside the GOP say Haley’s resilience — she has outlasted everyone but the ex-president, who has been the titular head of the party for nearly eight years — suggests Republicans are divided in ways that could doom them come November.
The exit polls showing the lack of general-election commitment to Trump among Haley’s voters appear to support this contention.
ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE
But a closer look at the exit polls raises questions about how Republican many of these voters really are. National and swing-state surveys conducted by multiple pollsters and media organizations continually find overwhelming Republican support for Trump in head-to-head matchups with President Joe Biden.
The election results have generally been lopsided without much further inspection. Outside of Vermont, Trump approached 60% in every Republican primary on Tuesday. He broke 70% in nine of them. He broke 80% in three of them, as he had just done in Idaho, Missouri, and North Dakota in the days prior.
Trump won Minnesota, which was the only state carried by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in 2016, with more than two-thirds of the vote. He broke 70% in Maine, which went for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2016. He won over three-quarters of the vote in Texas. It remains to be seen what happens in Utah.
Haley has advertised herself as the candidate representing the 40% of the primary electorate she says rejects Trump. Haley has won majorities twice, in Vermont and Washington, D.C. She has broken 40% once, in New Hampshire, and has come within a rounding error of doing so a second time, in her home state of South Carolina.
In South Carolina, 70% of voters who identified as Republicans before the primary voted for Trump over Haley. She won 59% among participants who had never voted in a Republican primary before, according to NBC News exit polls.
The numbers are similar in New Hampshire. Trump won 74% among those who were registered Republicans before the primary to Haley’s 24%. Haley won 65% of those who had never voted in a Republican primary before.
Haley voters barely disapproved of Biden’s performance in office compared to Trump supporters in key primaries. In North Carolina, 48% of Haley voters approved of the job Biden is doing to 52% who disapproved. Among Trump voters, 2% approved and 96% disapproved.
Trump won 85% of North Carolina primary voters who considered themselves Republicans before election day, though he also beat Haley among independents 54% to 40%. She won 57% of those who had never voted in a Republican primary before.
The results were similar in Virginia, where Haley performed well in the D.C. suburbs while losing statewide. Forty-eight percent of her voters approved of Biden to 51% who disapproved. Only 1% of Trump voters approved to 97% who disapproved.
Trump won 79% of Virginians who considered themselves Republicans before the primary. Haley took 19%. They split independents, and she won 84% of the sliver who identified as Democrats.
It is possible that some, or even most, of these voters would vote Republican in November if Haley was the nominee. Many might consider a GOP nominee other than Trump. In a close election, even a few of these voters, or a handful of true Republican defectors, could matter in the right states. Haley’s crossover potential is surely greater than Trump’s.
But outside of a closed D.C. primary in which fewer than 2,000 people voted, Haley has only been competitive when a large number of non-Republicans have participated. That fact, and what these non-Republicans tell exit pollsters about themselves, is consistent with election analyst Steve Kornacki’s theory that much of the Haley vote represents “a bonus opportunity to cast yet another vote against Trump.”
It is an opportunity afforded by the lack of a competitive Democratic primary.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The meaning of the Haley vote has major implications for two campaigns besides Trump’s. Haley has a decision to make about how long to continue her fight. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign is investing a lot in the ideas that the GOP is divided and the polls are unreliable.
“Unity is not achieved by simply claiming ‘we’re united,’” Haley spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement Tuesday night. “Today, in state after state, there remains a large block of Republican primary voters who are expressing deep concerns about Donald Trump. That is not the unity our party needs for success. Addressing those voters’ concerns will make the Republican Party and America better.”
