While eyes were focused on the sweeping victories from former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden on Super Tuesday, the results of several key races down the ballot are hinting at an action-packed general election this November.
Alabama, California, North Carolina, and Texas held congressional races on Super Tuesday — several of which could make or break Republicans’ ability to hold the House majority and Democrats’ ability to maintain their majority in the Senate.
Alabama and North Carolina races piqued interest in particular because they are the first test of redistricting battles, where new congressional maps placed incumbents against incumbents and essentially dissolved districts and forced their members to retire earlier than planned.
House Freedom Caucus victory in member-on-member showdown
In Alabama, hard-line Republicans secured a win after Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) defeated incumbent Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) in the 1st Congressional District GOP primary. Moore, who was representing the 2nd Congressional District, had to switch races after his hometown got moved into Carl’s district under the new congressional maps.
Moore had solidified support and donations from his closest allies in the Freedom Caucus. Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Warren Davidson (R-OH), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), and other caucus members had endorsed Moore in the weeks leading up to the primary election.
Both men had tried to align themselves with Trump throughout their campaigns. Carl had focused on hitting Moore directly, while Moore focused on his Freedom Caucus ties and using rhetoric commonly used by the former president regarding the border and funding to Ukraine.
The Associated Press called the Super Tuesday race in Moore’s favor at 11:49 p.m., 51.8% to Carl’s 48.2%, with 95% of the vote counted. Moore will go on to face Democrat Tom Holmes, who ran unopposed, in November.
Moore’s shift into Carl’s district handed Democrats a strong opportunity to flip the 2nd District blue and possibly give the party seven seats in the House from the Alabama delegation. Two Democrats and two Republicans are heading to a runoff race on April 16.
Centrist Texas Republican heads to runoff in Texas
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is heading to a runoff primary after neither of the candidates could receive 50% of the vote, a sign that support for the congressman may be dwindling due to his voting record.
Gonzales had 46% of the vote when the Associated Press called the race at 12:17 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, with 90% of the vote counted. His top opponent, gun rights activist and social media influencer Brandon Herrera, received 23%, ushering the two Republicans into a runoff set for May 28.
Though Gonzales has portrayed himself as a conservative, his support waned due to his support of bipartisan gun violence legislation and his membership in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He was one of 14 House Republicans who supported a measure to expand background checks on guns and increase funds for school security in the wake of the Uvalde school shooting within his 23rd District.
His intraparty challenge came a year after the Texas Republican Party censured Gonzales for breaking with the GOP on some votes, making his primary one of the most watched GOP contests this election cycle. If Gonzales wins in May, he will go on to face Democrat Santos Limon.
Republicans receive good news in only competitive North Carolina House seat
Republicans came out on top on Super Tuesday after Laurie Buckhout, a combat veteran, clinched the GOP nomination for the 1st Congressional District in North Carolina. She defeated Sandy Smith, who has been the party’s nominee in that district twice and lost both times to a Democrat. The Associated Press called the race at 11:14 p.m. Eastern time with Buckhout at 53.5% and Smith at 46.5%.
Buckhout’s nomination sets up incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) for a difficult general election this fall, as the veteran works to connect Davis to Biden in a state that narrowly voted for Trump in 2020 by less than 2 percentage points. She ran on a border security, pro-gun, and anti-abortion agenda. Democrats, on the other hand, have already worked to tie Buckhout to living in Virginia and being an “insurrection apologist,” according to the Raleigh News & Observer.
Davis’s seat is considered a toss-up after moving from lean Democratic once new congressional maps were finalized in October last year. The district, which has been held by a Democrat since the 1880s, has trended toward Republicans over the last few election cycles, but redistricting pushed the territory even further into GOP hands. Under the new maps, the district moved from Biden +7 to Biden +2, making Davis one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents.
Cook Political Report had projected that having Buckhout as the GOP candidate would place Davis in a risky general election, whereas Smith lost to Davis, 52.4% to 47.6%, in 2022. If she wins, Buckhout will be the first member of the GOP to represent the 1st District since 1883.
Davis’s seat is one of several that could hand Republicans a 10- or 11-seat advantage, up from the current 7-7 delegation split. Many other Democrats retired following the adoption of the new maps, leaving their open seats more favorable to Republicans.
Senate race to replace Dianne Feinstein hits final stage
Following the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, three House Democrats entered the race to replace her in a race that is all but assured for the party. On Super Tuesday, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) emerged victorious after the Associated Press called the race 31 minutes after polls closed at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
Because of the state’s jungle primary, Schiff will go on to face former Los Angeles Dodgers player Steve Garvey in November. Schiff earned 33.2% of the vote and Garvey earned 32.5%, with about half of the votes counted.
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Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) came in with about 14% of the vote and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) came in with less than 10%. Both women will leave Congress when their terms end in January.
A Garvey win assists Democrats in avoiding a costly intraparty battle between Schiff and Porter that would have likely split loyalties and drained resources that will now be better spent on vulnerable Democrats in toss-up races.
