A pending ban on menthol cigarettes could add to President Joe Biden’s woes as the midterm elections come into view.
On top of a struggling economy, immigration issues, and inflation, the Biden administration could hurt Democratic hopefuls with its ban on menthol cigarettes, according to a new poll of voters in three swing states.
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“Opposition to this ban centers around the fact that voters do not believe a ban would be effective, it would spawn an illicit market, and should not be a major priority given all other crises going on,” reads the text of an Echelon Insights poll of voters in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The poll found that banning menthol cigarettes is opposed by between 50% and 52% of voters in the three states, while only 28% to 31% support it. All three states have Senate races on the ballot this fall.
A majority of independents and a plurality of Democrats want to keep menthol legal in each state. In Nevada, 54% of Hispanic voters agree.
The Food and Drug Administration announced on April 29, 2021, that it was working toward banning menthol cigarettes and all flavored cigars “within the next year.” Officials are now finalizing the plan to ban menthols, which were exempted from a ban on flavored cigarettes enacted in 2009.
The FDA says the ban could save hundreds of thousands of lives and will “address health disparities experienced by communities of color, low-income populations, and LGBTQ+ individuals.” An estimated 85% of black smokers use menthol cigarettes.
Black leaders have come out both for and against the ban. The NAACP wrote a letter to Biden administration officials outlining its support for the ban, while Al Sharpton’s National Action Network issued its own letter making the opposite case.
“This would expose consumers to dangerous contraband cigarettes, increase youth access to cigarettes and promote criminal activity,” reads Sharpton’s letter. “Further, a menthol ban would exacerbate existing, simmering issues around racial profiling, discrimination, and policing.”
Critics point out that Sharpton’s group has accepted money from Reynolds American, maker of Newport cigarettes. But his concerns are shared by Richard Marianos, a Georgetown University professor and former Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives officer.
“If you put in a prohibition, you will have to go out and lock up and harass people for selling menthol cigarettes,” he said. “It will have a great adverse effect on police reform and community policing.”
The process of converting an unflavored cigarette into a menthol cigarette is not difficult, argued Marianos, which will make it hard if not impossible for police to enforce the ban while creating a new crime out of a product that has been legal for decades.
But the benefits outweigh the risks, argued Clifford Douglas, director of the University of Michigan’s Tobacco Research Network, especially because the ban could help prevent young people from taking up tobacco in the first place. He is open to leaving menthol flavors on the shelf when it comes to electronic cigarettes, however.
It appears the voting public is on the side of Sharpton and Marianos. In the Echelon poll, between 44% and 49% of voters said they’d be less likely to vote for a menthol-ban-supporting candidate, compared to between 21% and 25% who would be more likely to vote for a politician who wants to ban the product.
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Even so, it remains to be seen whether voters feel strongly enough about the issue for it to affect which party they support either way.
“My guess is that even if it’s an unpopular move, I suspect it’s not going to be a voting issue in the midterm elections,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “Voters have a lot of other fish to fry.”
Bannon figures the benefits outweigh the risks of black markets and policing issues and points to the potential for saving lives as to why he supports the move.
But with President Joe Biden far underwater with voters already, any move that could hurt support for Democratic candidates could help fuel a red wave in November.
