Look at the numbers, but look at the variables, too: Republican Todd Young is now firmly the favorite to win Indiana’s Senate race, seizing control of a key toss-up race the GOP almost certainly must win to retain its majority in the upper chamber.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-plus” forecast, which accounts for survey, economic, and historical data, the third-term House representative had almost a 70 percent chance to defeat Democrat Evan Bayh as of Monday afternoon. The swing is the most dramatic of any Senate contest in the country—in July, when Bayh announced his last-minute candidacy, the former senator was a significant favorite, counting among his advantages a flush war chest and good standing among the Hoosier voters who have elected him to three different offices. Those edges began to dull when it was revealed, in myriad instances, that Bayh had become distant from Indiana in the six years he’s been out of office, in terms of his residence and career priorities. Young, an economically minded, center-right Republican who has run against Bayh’s support of Obamacare—and, later, his partial opposition to one of the law’s provisions, tied to his advocacy work—has benefitted from Bayh’s eroding image.
But as we’ve seen with FiveThirtyEight’s constantly updated numbers, these predictions aren’t static, sometimes within a single day. Using the them as a baseline, there are a few fundamental reasons why Young will head into Election Day as the candidate with momentum—and the front-runner.
The onslaught of Bayh’s negative news coverage has defined this race. Week after week, Bayh faced story after story highlighting, in unflattering colors, his out-of-state living circumstances, his work with special interests while in and out of office, and how those allegiances had the appearance of affecting his political positions. The press took the helium out of his balloon and replaced it with lead. It’s clearly cost him dearly.
The left has not come to Bayh’s defense. The Democrat kept almost all of the $10.3 million left over from his war chest in 2010 to begin his 2016 run. But since then, amid the unrelentingly bad news, Bayh has had to fend largely for himself—and, in some cases, it’s been entities tilting more to the left that have damaged him. Bayh, with his Wall Street ties, cannot count Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a fundraising asset to his party, among his allies. Not coincidentally, the Huffington Post has given Bayh tough treatment; in a reported piece on his extensive financial interests, the coauthors write, “Bayh is what’s wrong with Washington, and the predicament he has put Indiana voters in is emblematic of the problems with our system of government.” Meanwhile, Young has managed to close the campaign cash gap with his opponent through a $10 million edge in outside spending.
Indiana’s Trump lean removes a concern Republicans face in other toss-up Senate races. The good news for Young in a recent WTHR/Howey Politics poll of the Hoosier state was twofold: Not only had he taken the lead from Bayh, surging ahead 46 to 41 percent, but Donald Trump had expanded his margin over Hillary Clinton there to 11 points. According to the Real Clear Politics average, that survey was the fourth straight one of Indiana to show Trump with an upper hand in the double figures. The GOP’s base voters have begun to “come home” to their nominee, as many Republicans have observed, which benefits a red-state hopeful like Young.
