Barack Obama has improved his standing among a variety of voter subgroups since mid-September based on Gallup’s recent polling. I noted his positive move among seniors in a post last week. The latest subgroup analysis released from Gallup reveals another interesting shift: a notable swing toward Obama since mid-September among men. But in this highly volatile economic and political environment, it’s possible these numbers might have shifted back toward McCain in the last week. Looking at the Gallup tracking since early August, McCain consistently led among men by 5-8 points (he also trailed among women by double digits expect for a week or two after the GOP convention when the gap narrowed, but Obama now leads among women by 14 points). But in the most recent voter analysis, McCain trails Obama among men by 5 points, the first time he has not led this subgroup in the Gallup tracking. These numbers, however, are only based on data from October 6-12, and don’t include the most recent tracking data Gallup released last night. The newest Gallup numbers show Obama leading the horserace matchup by 6 points (51%-45%) using their “expanded” turnout model that assumes higher than normal turnout among minorities and younger voters. It also shows a 2-point difference (Obama 49%-McCain 47%) using Gallup’s traditional turnout model. While Gallup won’t post the gender breakdown of the most recent tracking until next week, I assume McCain has closed the gap again among men within the last week if McCain has indeed turned this into a 2-6 point race overall. You can read Gallup’s full subgroup analysis here.
