Over the weekend on “The Score,” my colleague Scott Lee interviewed Democratic strategist Paul Goldman about the state of the Senate race – whether and when Tim Kaine might throw his hat into the ring, how the Republican field will shake out and other matters. As is his habit, Paul made some interesting calls – including some that run counter to Richmond’s conventional wisdom.
On Kaine’s candidacy, Goldman says he’s “definitely going to run,” but that he hasn’t made the announcement because he’s trying to get into ‘the candidate zone,” which Goldman equated to getting psyched-up for a basketball game. Perhaps so, though for Virginia Democrats, the hope is that Mr. Kaine doesn’t spend too long trying to locate his personal eye of the tiger.
While he likes Kaine, Goldman thinks retiring Sen. Jim Webb would have been a stronger candidate, and a “sure win against Allen.”
Goldman is also quite confident that George Allen will be the GOP nominee. That may not come as news to the Allen faithful, who are unpardonably confident their man will walk all over the announced completion. But they may find it interesting that Goldman doesn’t think Allen is vulnerable to the declared candidates. He doesn’t think they are “credible enough” to win the nomination, at least for now.
On the recent hub-bub over Rep. Bobby Scott possibly running in the Democratic primary, Goldman says “he’s not running.” Scott won’t give up a safe House seat, even though he believes Scott could, “if he wanted to try,” not only win the Democratic nomination, but the general election as well. Goldman noted that when former Gov. Doug Wilder touted a possible Scott candidacy, “Wilder didn’t do him any favors” by stating that an African American candidate deserved consideration. Goldman called the whole episode “silly.”
As for how the general election might set-up, he thinks the GOP will run against “Tim Obama,” which would be a “different kind of race than Kaine’s run before.” It also means the top of the ticket – the presidential contest – will be more important than ever.
And it’s here that Goldman makes his most interesting pick: Bob McDonnell, he says, will be the GOP choice for vice president. That runs counter to what Larry Sabato’s experts are saying. But then the choice comes down to what national Republicans think they need to do in order to win the White House – and one of their considerations is how best to take Virginia back from the President and restore its 13 electoral votes to the red column. That might make a Bob McDonnell choice not only sensible, but essential.
And it could help the GOP Senate nominee at the same time. Goldman thinks having McDonnell on the ticket could be worth “a couple of points” and if the contest is as close as Goldman thinks it will be, then those couple of points become invaluable.
But even then, Goldman has words of warning for the man he thinks will be the GOP nominee, George Allen: “George Allen has got to stop trying to be Senator Reload, trying to recreate the 1990s.” If Allen is smart, Goldman says “he’ll try to be more like Bob McDonnell.”
I wonder what Prof. Sabato’s crystal ball crew will have to say about that?
