Republicans on Tuesday were nervously monitoring a special election to fill a vacant Kansas House seat, as energized Democrats threatened an improbable upset.
Polls were scheduled to close in the Wichita-area 4th district at 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
President Trump and the national GOP were forced to rush in and rescue Kansas Treasurer Ron Estes in this solidly conservative seat after internal polling showed him in danger of losing to Democratic attorney James Thompson.
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence recorded robo calls for Estes; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas campaigned for him; and the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan, invested to boost GOP turnout.
Republican insiders expected the eleventh-hour push to work, but conceded that having to spend resources in a district Trump won by 27 points in November made them uncomfortable.
“I’ve been reaching out to our national groups and people that we need their assistance to highlight this race,” Kelly Arnold, chairman of the Kansas Republican Party, said in an interview. “Typically, Kansas is a red state and the national groups overlook us.”
The normally Republican district opened up in January when Mike Pompeo resigned to become CIA director. While both parties focused on the competitive campaign for next Tuesday’s special election to fill a vacant Georgia House seat, Thompson quietly gained ground on Estes.
By late last week, private surveys showed Estes’ lead had dropped to the low single digits, prompting Republicans in Washington to get off the sidelines. The NRCC has since spent more than $100,000 on advertising, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission; CLF has spent $40,000 on phone banks.
Trump on Tuesday posted a tweet urging voters to support Estes, whom he said is “a wonderful guy,” adding: “I need his help on Healthcare & Tax Cuts (Reform).”
As elsewhere, Thompson was benefitting from supercharged Democratic enthusiasm, said GOP operatives following the race. Progressives are angry at Trump and looking for any way possible to send him a message.
But the real problem, Republicans contend, is Estes. They blame his poor performance and lousy campaign for the party having to step in. Gov. Sam Brownback’s 27 percent approval rating, making him the second most unpopular governor in the country, compounded matters.
“Yes, Democrats are energized,” said a Republican operative, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “But Ron Estes is embarrassing — and the campaign he’s run is even worse. If this was the NCAA tournament, they’d investigate him for point shaving.”
Thompson has enjoyed an uptick in support from liberal activists since last week when this race showed up on the national radar. The Democrat raised tens of thousands of dollars just over the weekend, coming close to what he had raised until then.
But the politics of the district will make it difficult for Thompson to win. That reality is supported by the fact that national Democrats have largely stayed away, focusing resources on the special election campaign in Georgia’s 6th district. The party’s contribution to Thompson’s effort appeared limited to 25,000 phone bank calls, beginning Monday evening, targeting Democratic and undecided voters, courtesy of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
A Democratic operative told the Washington Examiner that the party getting heavily involved might have nationalized the race, harming Thompson more than it helped, given the district’s strong conservative lean. If Thompson can keep Estes’ final margin of victory below double digits, expect Democrats to celebrate the outcome as a harbinger of things to come in 2018.
“We’re still going to lose, but it’s going to be embarrassing for Republicans,” a Democratic insider said.
Totals from early and absentee voting suggest that Estes will finish on top.
According to recent figures, Democrats narrowly led Republicans, by 168, in absentee ballots returned by mail. But 2,289 more Republicans than Democrats had voted early in-person. Republicans led in ballots returned overall by a margin of 14,062 to 11,961.
Republicans in the 4th are more apt to vote on Election Day, and only 7 percent of all registered GOP voters had voted so far, compared to 12 percent of Democrats, who comprise a smaller portion of the electorate.
