A new poll puts former Vice President Joe Biden 14 points ahead of President Trump nationally.
NBC and the Wall Street Journal began surveying respondents the day after the first presidential debate and wrapped up on Thursday, just before Trump revealed he had tested positive for COVID-19. In total, 800 registered voters were interviewed. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
Fifty-three percent of voters said they would vote for Biden, 39% said they would vote for Trump, 2% said they would vote for neither or someone else, and 6% said they were not sure.
Nationally, Biden has been maintaining a solid lead over the president. Recent polls show Biden averaging between a 7-to-9-point lead. However, a recent CNBC/Change Research poll put Biden ahead by 13 points. That’s the only time Biden has had a lead above 10 points since early September.
The survey results were released with roughly 30 days until Election Day.
In the days leading up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was only polling a few points ahead of Trump, hovering around a 3-or 4-point lead, before she lost the presidential contest.
The fact that the new poll was a survey of “registered” voters and not “likely” voters may have had some effect on the data. Washington Post polling director Scott Clement explained that interviewing “likely” voters, while each polling firm may have different methods for screening for them, tends to get a more accurate result, calling it the “holy grail of polling.”
