Pollster Nate Silver projected that former President Donald Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the presidency in November. He gives President Joe Biden a 33.7% chance with a narrow 0.5% chance of either candidate failing to reach 270 electoral votes.

Silver also gives Biden a 51% chance to win the popular vote with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. slated to take 4.3% of the popular vote. The mode’s returns are based on 40,000 simulations of the election.

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