The bloody civil war undermining the dictatorship in Syria is both a grave danger and a rare opportunity for Israel, senior officials from the Jewish state and Washington say privately.
The unraveling of President Bashar Assad’s regime may remove a thorn from Israel’s side, and, more importantly, deprive Iran of an ally. But the imminent threat of Assad’s departure could make Tehran even more desperate to strike at Israel before the balance of power in the region shifts, officials said.
While the quest by Iran for nuclear weapons was an important topic at the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee conference in Washington, the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Syria, where civil war has left at least 8,000 dead, struck many as the more immediate concern.
Breaking Syria away from Iran without provoking a war is a necessary first step in dismantling Iran’s global reach, officials said. As that process runs its course, the U.S. and Israel must agree on “red lines” Iran must not cross, officials said.
Still, the turmoil in Syria could be a turning point in the region, commentators said.
“The devil we do not know in Syria is better than the devil we do know,” said Ehud Yaari, an Israel geopolitical expert.
Iran has been supplying weapons, equipment and other support to Assad’s army since the uprising began in March 2011, U.S. intelligence experts said. Iran uses Syria as a channel to funnel money and weapons to Hezbollah terrorist camps to be used against Israel. By supplying weapons and aid to Syria, Iran is hoping to stem the growing efforts to remove Assad from power.
Some of those attending the AIPAC conference wondered aloud whether the United States, emotionally traumatized by Iraq and Afghanistan, had the appetite to play a role in shaping in the events unfolding in Syria and Iran.
“Are we still going to try to remain engaged in the Middle East the way we have in the past?” asked Michael Singh, a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. “I think there are many signs pointing to ‘no.’ ”
Singh said it appeared that the U.S. lacks resolve on how to proceed on Syria, on the one hand saying Assad must go, but doing nothing to force him out.
That was creating uncertainty in the region that the U.S. was going to continue in its role of major player, some experts said.
“So what you’ll have instead, you’ll have small or medium-sized countries jockeying for power in the Middle East,” said Singh. “I think it would be a mistake for the U.S. to let the Middle East go down this road. We need to send a strong signal to our allies, especially Israel, that we are going to remain engaged in this region.”
Many AIPAC attendees lamented what some described as American failure to lead at a time of great turmoil in the Middle East, as the promise of pro-democracy revolts from last year faded. “What began as the Arab Spring has now become an Islamist Winter,” said Bret Stephens, a Middle East expert who spoke at AIPAC. He added that the Arab revolutions came at a difficult time when the U.S. and Western Europe were preoccupied by economic concerns. The result is a sense on the part of Israel that foreign policy in Washington was being treated as an afterthought. “Israel is feeling considerable isolation,” he said.
President Obama’s speech Sunday was the strongest public support of Israel’s decision to stand up to Iran since tensions increased between the allies this past year, said attendees at AIPAC.
And at a meeting Monday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama said the U.S. commitment to Israel “is rock solid” and noted the changing political climate in the Middle East is a serious concern, for Israel as well as the U.S.
As for Assad, he will have a difficult time surviving the growing Syrian revolution, said James Carafano, senior defense analyst with the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington.
The U.S. is currently drafting a new U.N. resolution, which demands access for humanitarian aid workers to towns destroyed by the Syrian regime. Russia and China vetoed the first resolution and, along with Iran, continue to stymie attempts to remove Assad.
“Iranian officials are terrified of a blowback in their own nation if the Syrian uprising is successful,” Carafano said. “If Assad survives he will be nothing more than a stooge of Iran. Syria can also turn into another Lebanon, mired in civil war. Either way, it will have a major impact on the geopolitical perspective.”
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
