For all the media fixation on the “lies” President Trump tells, sometimes he has an uncanny knack of telling the unvarnished truth.
So it was on Friday night when Trump told those gathered at a West Virginia rally: “Sometimes it’s not as exciting to talk about the economy because we have a lot of other things to talk about.”
That unscripted line left some Republican strategists nodding in agreement and wondering about what might have been. Republicans are bracing for the loss of the House of Representatives with operatives citing the lack of a coherent economic message and unnecessary distractions as decisive factors.
Trump routinely touts low unemployment and booming businesses during rambling speeches or rallies for midterm election candidates. But Republican campaign staff members argue that the message did not receive enough prominence due to strategic missteps.
“Elections are most often driven by personal economic impact: Am I better off today than I was the last time I voted?” said Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. “For a clear majority of Americans, the answer is yes. But the GOP isn’t getting credit for it because it didn’t talk about it enough.”
Luntz blames “freelancing” lawmakers who, among other things, have sought to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who oversees special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.
“Nobody votes for Congress based on some presidential investigation, they vote for Congress based on whether they are better off. [House Majority Leader] Kevin McCarthy understand that, other Republicans in the conference do not,” he said.
Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist said Republicans have talked plenty about the economy, but get sidetracked when Trump offers a smorgasbord of commentary that distracts from the most-winning message.
“The challenge you have is the president likes to have big long discussions at rallies, and then the message of the rally can be anything CBS decides, because you mentioned 20 things,” Norquist said. “The Left decides to pick the one that fits their narrative.”
Norquist said that “exciting” new issues aren’t always politically wise. The tax-cut campaigner is particularly critical of Trump invoking immigration issues in the final month of campaigning, vowing to sign an executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship and to detain asylum applicants from Central America in tent cities.
“Does that bring a single person to the polls? Is it moving any undecided voter — toward you, anyway?” Norquist said. “Immigration is not a consensus issue within the current Republican Party because so many Republican voters are immigrants.”
Sal Russo, co-founder of fiscally focused Tea Party Express, said Republicans should have been focused on claiming credit for the economy, even if specifically invoking 2016 tax cuts appeared problematic in some polling.
“It’s the economic policies that have changed in Washington, and I don’t think Republicans have made that case very well,” Russo said. On immigration from Latin America, “too much of the argument seems to be cultural” rather than economic, Russo said.
“The biggest microphone we always have is the president of the United States, that’s the person who commands the most attention,” Russo said. “He’s been an effective spokesperson, but have we melded his message with the Republican message of a growing economy as effectively as we could have? We probably didn’t.”
Pollster John Zogby agreed with the GOP analysts who believe there was a missed opportunity. “The economy was and is the GOP ace in the hole. Continuous job growth, unemployment figures many of us thought we would never see again, manufacturing jobs are up, as are wages. That is the sort of thing that draws undecided voters and independents,” he said. “Immigration is a red meat issue for those already eating it up and possibly experiencing gluttony.”
Still, Trump’s approach does have support, including from former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, who worked for then-President George W. Bush during his first term. He believes a disciplined focus on the economy could be more useful in a presidential election year, recalling Bill Clinton’s successful messaging in 1996.
“In theory and on paper, I wish Republicans had focused more on the strong economy. In reality, I suspect nobody would have quoted them or published what they said,” Fleischer said. “Could the president have done something differently from the power of his bully pulpit? Probably, but he recognized that an off-year election is a base election, and he has to turn out the faithful.”
Fleischer said cultural issues may do more to rally the Republican base than hurt by distracting from a winning economic message — and he credits Trump’s aggressive campaign rally schedule with helping avoid a GOP bloodbath, with most commentators expecting narrow loss of the House and narrowly retained Republican control in the Senate.
“What’s really driving [the election] is the same thing that’s driven a score of elections since 2016, and that’s Donald Trump. Democrat turnout is at record numbers. They can’t stand Donald Trump,” Fleischer said.
“Democratic turnout has been sky-high for almost two years. What’s different in October 2018 is the Kavanaugh hearings and the president nationalizing the election, which is a smart thing to do, to get his base out and try to match Democratic enthusiasm. If that didn’t happen, this would have been a blowout year for Republicans.”
