Recent Republican polling in Michigan revealed just how nettlesome President Joe Biden’s political vulnerability can be for House Democrats as they struggle to defend their majority.
In the new 7th Congressional District, late November polling by the GOP firm Cygnal found Biden’s approval at an abysmal 40%, with 56% disapproving of the job he is doing as president. In the same survey, Republicans led the generic ballot, gauging which party voters would prefer reign in Congress, by a whopping 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%. That could spell trouble for second-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin in 2022.
The incumbent Democrat is running for reelection in the district, newly configured and stretching from suburban Detroit to the western outskirts of Lansing that Biden would have won by 1 point over then-President Donald Trump in 2020. Her image rates 39% favorable and 37% unfavorable overall but is slightly negative among crucial independent voters.
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“Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin is well known, but not well liked in the district,” Cygnal pollsters Brock McCleary and Tiffany Beverly wrote in the polling memorandum, prepared for Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.
“Slotkin is politically polarizing as Democratic voters are uniform in their support of her,” the memo added. “Republicans are uniform in their opposition and Independents are split. Leaving Slotkin with little room for growth in the new district.”
The district, approved by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and rated R+4, was drawn to deliver Republicans a slight advantage. But the seat is competitive. In 2016, it would have swung for Trump by 4 points; four years prior, it would have voted for President Barack Obama by 3 points.
Slotkin, a top Republican target in the midterm elections, is formidable. In 2018, the congresswoman ousted an incumbent Republican in the existing 8th Congressional District, a red seat. She won reelection two years later with 51% of the vote, defeating her Republican challenger by 4 points, even as Trump received 49.6% and won the district by nearly 1 point.
On Tuesday, Slotkin announced she raised just under $1 million in October, November, and December, closing 2021 with more than $4.5 million in cash on hand. State Sen. Tom Barrett, her main GOP challenger at the outset of the election year, raised more than $310,000 after entering the race midway through the fourth quarter.
“Barrett isn’t your grandfather’s Republican,” said Elena Kuhn, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “He’s a right-wing extremist more interested in his political career than supporting workers and families in mid-Michigan.”
Congressional Leadership Fund is pointing to the data in this survey, conducted Nov. 17–18, as proof Slotkin is beatable, hoping to encourage strong GOP challengers to enter the race. The numbers also include these findings: Against two named Republican challengers, Slotkin trailed significantly, garnering just 42% and 43% of the vote, respectively.
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The Washington Examiner reviewed the names of the Republicans that Cygnal tested in the poll but agreed to withhold the names at the request of Congressional Leadership Fund. The super PAC did not want to appear as though it was urging any of these specific Republicans to take on Slotkin.
The survey polled 414 likely general election voters in the new district. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.81 points.
