The Hillary bubble among the elite media has begun to burst and a new Iowa poll shows Obama pulling narrowly ahead in the caucus. Ah October, a chill in the air and a churning in the stomachs of campaign hacks everywhere. This is getting serious. HRC is paying the same price for her Bond villain laugh as she has for all her over-reaching, from accent games to weasel wording; it’s all too clever by half. Deep down Hillary is not a natural candidate at all. She is staff. The candidate persona is something she, like many, has created as a tool to victory; every public move she makes is practiced, polished, crafted, and controlled. She doesn’t make mistakes, but she lacks any authenticity. Is this the year of the calculus as candidate? Possibly, but I think not.The latest third quarter money X-ray is upon us. Both HRC and Obama will do well. Edwards will stall. Among the Republicans, I predict all will be on the weak side; such is the nature of the third quarter and the fatigue of the GOP. McCain should have enough to fend off receivership and keep his comeback alive. Romney can self-fund. Cash on hand is the vital question for the other three: Will the Fabulous Rudy G have enough in the vault to defend himself from the inevitable assault from Mitt Scissorhands? Does Thompson–Fred, not the late Tommy, although it is getting harder to tell–have enough cash on hand to start actually doing things and prove a campaign heartbeat exists? And what is the financial health of Mr. Huckabee? He’s moving up in Iowa with a chance to be the upset story there, but it won’t mean much in the big picture unless he finds some money fast. Meanwhile, it is time for Tancredo, Paul, Hunter and Brownback to get off the stage and retire to the prop warehouse along with their debate podiums. Enough is enough. Time for the children to go to bed. The first three quarters belong to the insider elites. The fourth quarter is run by the voters. Now it really starts to matter.
